I'm going to talk today about saving more, but not today, tomorrow. I'm going to talk about Save More Tomorrow. It's a program that Richard Thaler from the University of Chicago and I devised maybe 15 years ago. 今天我要談一談存錢，但不是今天開始存錢，而是明天存錢。我將要談的是：明天存更多的錢。這是芝加哥大學(xué)的理查德·泰勒和我在15年前設(shè)計(jì)的一個(gè)項(xiàng)目。 The program, in a sense, is an example of behavioral finance on steroids -- how we could really use behavioral finance. Now you might ask, what is behavioral finance? 在某種意義上這個(gè)項(xiàng)目是廣義的行為金融學(xué)，我們?cè)鯓硬拍苷嬲乩眯袨榻鹑趯W(xué)。現(xiàn)在也許你會(huì)問什么是行為金融學(xué)？So let's think about how we manage our money. Let's start with mortgages. It's kind of a recent topic, at least in the U.S. A lot of people buy the biggest house they can afford, and actually slightly bigger than that. 那讓我們考慮一下我們是如何管理我們的錢的，讓我們從貸款開始。這個(gè)話題很新，至少在美國很新，很多人買的房子都是他們能支付得起的最大的房子。而且實(shí)際上，比那種還要再大一些。 And then they foreclose. And then they blame the banks for being the bad guys who gave them the mortgages.之后，他們的財(cái)產(chǎn)被銀行收走了。然后他們就開始責(zé)備銀行， 因?yàn)殂y行不好，給了他們貸款。Let's also think about how we manage risks -- for example, investing in the stock market. Two years ago, three years ago, about four years ago, markets did well. We were risk takers, of course. Then market stocks seize and we're like, 讓我們也來想一下我們?nèi)绾喂芾盹L(fēng)險(xiǎn)：比如說，投資股票市場(chǎng)。兩年或三年，甚至是四年以前，股市很好，當(dāng)然，當(dāng)時(shí)我們也是風(fēng)險(xiǎn)承擔(dān)者。之后股市開始縮水而我們就開始感嘆， 'Wow. These losses, they feel, emotionally, they feel very different from what we actually thought about it when markets were going up.' So we're probably not doing a great job when it comes to risk taking.從情感上而言，他們會(huì)覺得這些損失與我們實(shí)際的想象中市場(chǎng)會(huì)回升的時(shí)間有很大差距 ，涉及風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的時(shí)候，我們做的也許不是很好。How many of you have iPhones? Anyone? Wonderful. I would bet many more of you insure your iPhone --you're implicitly buying insurance by having an extended warranty. What if you lose your iPhone? What if you do this? How many of you have kids? Anyone? 你們中多少人有iPhone？有人嗎？太好了。我打賭你們中許多人都給你們的iPhone上了保險(xiǎn)，延長(zhǎng)保修期也是一種隱性的保險(xiǎn)。如果你的iPhone丟了怎么辦？如果發(fā)生了其他事情怎么辦？你們當(dāng)中多少人有孩子? 多少人？Keep your hands up if you have sufficient life insurance.I see a lot of hands coming down. I would predict, if you're a representative sample, that many more of youinsure your iPhones than your lives, even when you have kids. We're not doing that well when it comes to insurance.如果你有足夠的人壽保險(xiǎn)請(qǐng)繼續(xù)舉著手不要放下，我看到很多手放下去了。我預(yù)計(jì)說，如果你是一個(gè)代表性樣本，那么你們給iPhone上的保險(xiǎn)比你們的壽險(xiǎn)還要多，有了孩子也是一樣。每當(dāng)談及保險(xiǎn)的時(shí)候，我們做的都不夠好。The average American household spends 1,000 dollars a year on lotteries. And I know it sounds crazy. How many of you spend a thousand dollars a year on lotteries? No one. 美國一般家庭每年花費(fèi)1000美元在樂透彩上。我知道這聽起來很瘋狂。在座各位有多人每年花1000美元在樂透彩上？沒有人。 So that tells us that the people not in this room are spending more than a thousand to get the average to a thousand. Low-income people spend a lot more than a thousand on lotteries. So where does it take us? We're not doing a great job managing money.這就告訴了我們，沒在這間屋子里面的人每年花在樂透彩上的錢超過了1000美元，這才能讓平均值保持在1000美元。低收入人群花在樂透彩上的錢遠(yuǎn)遠(yuǎn)超出了1000美元，那么這會(huì)如何影響我們呢？我們并不是很擅長(zhǎng)于管理錢。Behavioral finance is really a combination of psychology and economics, trying to understand the money mistakes people make. And I can keep standing here for the 12 minutes and 53 seconds that I have left and make fun of all sorts of ways we manage money, and at the end you're going to ask, 'How can we help people?' 行為經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)實(shí)際上是心理學(xué)和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的結(jié)合。請(qǐng)?jiān)囍斫庖幌氯藗兯傅挠嘘P(guān)于金錢的錯(cuò)誤。在剩下的12分53秒中，我可以一直在這里站著取笑我們管理金錢的各種方法。結(jié)束的時(shí)候你們就會(huì)問：“我們?nèi)绾尾拍軒脱a(bǔ)別人呢”？And that's what I really want to focus on today. How do we take an understanding of the money mistakes people make, and then turning the behavioral challenges into behavioral solutions? And what I'm going to talk about today is Save More Tomorrow.這才是我今天想講的重點(diǎn)：我們?nèi)绾卫斫鈩e人在管理金錢上犯的錯(cuò)誤，并且改變這些行為上的挑戰(zhàn)，使其變?yōu)榻鉀Q方案？今天我將要講的是增加未來的儲(chǔ)蓄。I want to address the issue of savings. We have on the screen a representative sample of 100 Americans.And we're going to look at their saving behavior. First thing to notice is, half of them do not even have access to a 401(k) plan. 我想討論一下儲(chǔ)蓄的問題，在屏幕上有一個(gè)100個(gè)美國人的代表性樣本，我們將會(huì)看一下他們的儲(chǔ)蓄行為。首先需要注意的是他們當(dāng)中一半人都沒有加入401退休福利計(jì)劃。 They cannot make savings easy. They cannot have money go away from their paycheck into a 401(k) plan before they see it, before they can touch it. What about the remaining half of the people? Some of them elect not to save. They're just too lazy. 他們想要儲(chǔ)蓄很不容易，他們不能將錢一眼不看、一分不動(dòng)地投入到 401退休福利計(jì)劃當(dāng)中。那么剩下的一半人呢？他們中的一部分選擇不儲(chǔ)蓄，他們只是太懶了。They never get around to logging into a complicated website and doing 17 clicks to join the 401(k) plan. And then they have to decide how they're going to invest in their 52 choices, 他們從來不愿意登錄一個(gè)比較復(fù)雜的網(wǎng)站，并且點(diǎn)擊17下鼠標(biāo)加入401退休福利計(jì)劃。然后他們需要決定如何投資52種不同的計(jì)劃， and they never heard about what is a money market fund. And they get overwhelmed and the just don't join. How many people end up saving to a 401(k) plan? One third of Americans. Two thirds are not saving now.他們也從未聽說過什么是貨幣市場(chǎng)基金，他們應(yīng)接不暇，所以也就不了了之了。有多少人最后會(huì)加入401退休福利計(jì)劃呢？三分之一的美國人，三分之二的美國人現(xiàn)在沒有在儲(chǔ)蓄。Are they saving enough? Take out those who say they save too little. One out of 10 are saving enough. Nine out of 10 either cannot save through their 401(k) plan, decide not to save -- or don't decide -- or save too little. 他們存夠錢了么，除去那些說自己沒有存錢的人。10個(gè)人里面有一個(gè)人存的錢是足夠的。10個(gè)人中有9個(gè)或者是不能通過401退休福利計(jì)劃存款或者是決定不存款，或者還沒決定存不存款，或者存款少的微乎其微。 We think we have a problem of people saving too much. Let's look at that. We have one person -- well, actually we're going to slice him in half because it's less than one percent. Roughly half a percent of Americans feel that they save too much.我想那些存款過多的人面臨著一個(gè)問題，讓我們來看一下我們有一個(gè)人實(shí)際上我們只算他的一半，因?yàn)檫@個(gè)數(shù)據(jù)是少于1%的，大約有0.5%的美國人認(rèn)為他們存的錢太多了。What are we going to do about it? That's what I really want to focus on. We have to understand why people are not saving, and then we can hopefully flip the behavioral challenges into behavioral solutions, and then see how powerful it might be. 那么我們?cè)撊绾螌?duì)待這件事情呢？這就是為什么我想將重點(diǎn)放在這上，我們需要理解人們不去儲(chǔ)蓄的原因，這樣我們才有希望跨過行為上的障礙，將其變?yōu)榻鉀Q方式，并且看一下這會(huì)有多強(qiáng)大。 So let me divert for a second as we're going to identify the problems, the challenges, the behavioral challenges, that prevent people from saving. I'm going to divert and talk about bananas and chocolate.所以請(qǐng)給我一秒鐘轉(zhuǎn)移話題，因?yàn)槲覀兗磳⒁业侥切﹩栴}人們?cè)趦?chǔ)蓄上面對(duì)的挑戰(zhàn)、行為上的挑戰(zhàn)，我想先談一下香蕉和巧克力。Suppose we had another wonderful TED event next week. And during the break there would be a snack and you could choose bananas or chocolate. How many of you think you would like to have bananas during this hypothetical TED event next week? Who would go for bananas? 假設(shè)我們下周還有一次美好的TED講座，那么在休息期間會(huì)有茶點(diǎn)提供，你有香蕉或者是巧克力可以選擇。那么各位有多少人在這場(chǎng)假想的講座的茶歇間，會(huì)選擇吃香蕉呢？有多少人吃香蕉，請(qǐng)舉手。Wonderful. I predict scientifically 74 percent of you will go for bananas. Well that's at least what one wonderful study predicted. And then count down the days and see what people ended up eating. The same people that imagined themselves eating the bananas ended up eating chocolates a week later.很好 我從科學(xué)角度預(yù)計(jì)你們當(dāng)中有74%的人會(huì)選擇香蕉。至少一個(gè)很好的研究也應(yīng)該能預(yù)測(cè)到這一點(diǎn)，然后讓我們等到那一天，看看人們最后吃的什么吧。那些想象著自己吃香蕉的人一周之后吃的都是巧克力。Self-control is not a problem in the future. It's only a problem now when the chocolate is next to us. What does it have to do with time and savings, this issue of immediate gratification? Or as some economists call it, present bias. We think about saving. 自控能力不是未來的一個(gè)問題，當(dāng)巧克力就在我們手邊的時(shí)候，這就是一個(gè)現(xiàn)在的問題。這與時(shí)間、與儲(chǔ)蓄有什么關(guān)系呢？與這種即時(shí)的喜悅又有什么關(guān)系呢？一些經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家將其稱為，及時(shí)性偏見。我們總是想著儲(chǔ)蓄。 We know we should be saving. We know we'll do it next year, but today let us go and spend. Christmas is coming, we might as well buy a lot of gifts for everyone we know. So this issue of present bias causes us to think about saving, but end up spending.我們知道我們應(yīng)該儲(chǔ)蓄，我們知道我們明年會(huì)做，但是今天我們還是先消費(fèi)吧，圣誕節(jié)快到了，我們會(huì)給認(rèn)識(shí)的所有人都買禮物，所以這種及時(shí)性偏見，讓我們想的是儲(chǔ)蓄但卻以花錢告終。Let me now talk about another behavioral obstacle to saving having to do with inertia. But again, a little diversion to the topic of organ donation. Wonderful study comparing different countries. We're going to look at two similar countries, Germany and Austria. 讓我再談一個(gè)與惰性有關(guān)的儲(chǔ)蓄的行為障礙，但是同樣我需要先岔開一下話題，談一下器官捐贈(zèng)。這是一個(gè)有關(guān)不同國家的非常好的比較研究，我們將要看兩個(gè)相像的國家德國和奧地利。 And in Germany, if you would like to donate your organs --God forbid something really bad happens to you -- when you get your driving license or an I.D., you check the box saying, 'I would like to donate my organs.' Not many people like checking boxes. It takes effort. You need to think. Twelve percent do. 在德國如果你想要捐贈(zèng)器官，希望上帝是可以保佑你的在你在拿到駕照或者是身份證的時(shí)候，你需要在方框中打勾來說明“我想要捐贈(zèng)器官”。沒有多少人在方框中打勾，這需要很大努力，你需要再三考慮，有12%的人選擇捐贈(zèng)。Austria, a neighboring country, slightly similar, slightly different. What's the difference? Well, you still have choice. You will decide whether you want to donate your organs or not. But when you get your driving license, you check the box if you do not want to donate your organ. 在鄰國奧地利情況略有相似，卻也有些不同，那么什么地方不同呢？那就是你還是有選擇的，你需要決定你是不是想要捐贈(zèng)器官，但是當(dāng)你拿到駕照的時(shí)候如果你不想捐贈(zèng)器官，你需要在方框中打勾。 Nobody checks boxes. That's kind of too much effort. One percent check the box. The rest do nothing. Doing nothing is very common. Not many people check boxes.沒有人在方框中打勾，這太費(fèi)勁了，只有1%的人打了勾，其他的人什么都沒有做，無所事事是很正常的只有少部分人在方框中打勾。What are the implications to saving lives and having organs available? In Germany, 12 percent check the box. Twelve percent are organ donors. Huge shortage of organs, God forbid, if you need one. In Austria, again, nobody checks the box. 那么救助他人性命和器官捐贈(zèng)有什么影響呢？在德國有12%的人打了勾有12%的人是器官捐贈(zèng)者，器官短缺非常嚴(yán)重，上帝保佑你，如果你需要一個(gè)的話。在奧地利，同樣的，沒有人勾上了方框。 Therefore, 99 percent of people are organ donors. Inertia, lack of action. What is the default setting if people do nothing, if they keep procrastinating, if they don't check the boxes? Very powerful. 因此99%的人都是器官捐贈(zèng)者。惰性、缺乏行動(dòng)，如果人們什么也不做，那么默認(rèn)的什么就是什么，如果他們一直拖延下去，如果他們不選擇呢，這是很有力的。We're going to talk about what happens if people are overwhelmed and scared to make their 401(k) choices. Are we going to make them automatically join the plan, or are they going to be left out? 我們將會(huì)談一談如果人們很害怕選擇投資401退休福利計(jì)劃時(shí)，該怎么辦？我們是應(yīng)該讓他們自愿加入計(jì)劃，還是讓他們被落下。 In too many 401(k) plans, if people do nothing, it means they're not saving for retirement, if they don't check the box. And checking the box takes effort.在許多401退休福利計(jì)劃當(dāng)中，如果人們什么也不做 這就意味著如果他們不在方框中打勾，他們就沒有為未來存錢，而打勾是花費(fèi)精力的。So we've chatted about a couple of behavioral challenges. One more before we flip the challenges into solutions, having to do with monkeys and apples. No, no, no, this is a real study and it's got a lot to do with behavioral economics. 我們已經(jīng)談及了幾個(gè)行為障礙，在我們跨過挑戰(zhàn)討論解決方案之前，我們?cè)賮碚勔粋€(gè)，這個(gè)與猴子和蘋果有關(guān)系。不不不，這是一項(xiàng)存在的研究與行為經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)有很大關(guān)系。 One group of monkeys gets an apple, they're pretty happy. The other group gets two apples, one is taken away. They still have an apple left. They're really mad. Why have you taken our apple?有一組猴子得到了一個(gè)蘋果，它們很高興。另一組猴子得到了兩個(gè)蘋果，但是有一個(gè)被拿走了，它們只剩下了一個(gè)蘋果，它們就非常的憤怒，為什么要拿走我們的蘋果。This is the notion of loss aversion. We hate losing stuff, even if it doesn't mean a lot of risk. You would hate to go to the ATM, take out 100 dollars and notice that you lost one of those $20 bills. It's very painful, even though it doesn't mean anything. 這就是由損失引起的厭惡情緒，我們討厭失去東西即使我們并不會(huì)因此承擔(dān)多大風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。如果你去自動(dòng)取款機(jī)取出100美元，然后發(fā)現(xiàn)你丟了其中的20美元，你很可能會(huì)很憤恨，即使這并不意味著任何事情，這還是非常令人心痛的。 Those 20 dollars might have been a quick lunch. So this notion of loss aversion kicks in when it comes to savings too, because people, mentally and emotionally and intuitivelyframe savings as a loss because I have to cut my spending.這20美元很可能代表著一頓午餐。所以這種對(duì)損失的憤恨情緒在儲(chǔ)蓄的時(shí)候同樣也會(huì)發(fā)生，因?yàn)槿藗儚木裆?、情感上和本能上都認(rèn)為儲(chǔ)蓄是一種損失，因?yàn)槲倚枰獪p少花銷。So we talked about all sorts of behavioral challenges having to do with savings eventually. Whether you think about immediate gratification, and the chocolates versus bananas, it's just painful to save now. It's a lot more fun to spend now. 那讓我們來討論一下最終可能會(huì)影響到儲(chǔ)蓄的各種行為上的困難，無論你想到的是不是即時(shí)的喜悅，還是巧克力與香蕉之間的選擇，從現(xiàn)在開始存款就是很令人心痛的。現(xiàn)在開始花錢卻有趣得多。We talked about inertia and organ donations and checking the box. If people have to check a lot of boxes to join a 401(k) plan, they're going to keep procrastinating and not join. And last, we talked about loss aversion, and the monkeys and the apples. 我們討論了惰性與器官捐贈(zèng)以及是否在方框內(nèi)打勾，如果人們需要打很多個(gè)勾才能加入401退休福利計(jì)劃的話，他們就會(huì)擱置下這件事選擇不去參加。最后，我們來談下由損失引起的厭惡情緒以及猴子和蘋果的故事。 If people frame mentally saving for retirement as a loss, they're not going to be saving for retirement.如果人們?cè)谒枷肷险J(rèn)為，為退休而儲(chǔ)蓄是一種損失的話，他們就不會(huì)打算為退休而儲(chǔ)蓄。So we've got these challenges, and what Richard Thaler and I were always fascinated by -- take behavioral finance, make it behavioral finance on steroids or behavioral finance 2.0 or behavioral finance in action --flip the challenges into solutions. 所以我們得出了以下人們可能面臨的困難。理查德·泰勒和我總是對(duì)這些困難很感興趣，將行為金融學(xué)變得更加深入具體?；蛘呶覀兛梢苑Q其為行為金融學(xué)2.0版或者現(xiàn)實(shí)中的行為金融學(xué)，將所面臨的困難化為解決方案。 And we came up with an embarrassingly simple solution called Save More, not today, Tomorrow. 我們得出了一個(gè)異常簡(jiǎn)單的解決方案叫做為了明天而儲(chǔ)蓄，不是今天。How is it going to solve the challenges we chatted about? If you think about the problem of bananas versus chocolates, we think we're going to eat bananas next week. We think we're going to save more next year. 那么這種方案將怎樣解決我們剛剛談到的這些困難呢？如果你想到了香蕉還是巧克力的問題，想我們下周應(yīng)該是吃香蕉，那么我們就應(yīng)該想我們明年要存更多的錢，明天存更多的錢。 Save More Tomorrow invites employees to save more maybe next year --sometime in the future when we can imagine ourselves eating bananas, volunteering more in the community, exercising more and doing all the right things on the planet.邀請(qǐng)員工也許明年開始存更多的錢。未來的某一天，我們想象自己吃香蕉或者志愿參加更多的社區(qū)活動(dòng)的時(shí)候，更多的鍛煉或者是做所有正確的事情。Now we also talked about checking the box and the difficulty of taking action. Save More Tomorrow makes it easy. It's an autopilot. Once you tell me you would like to save more in the future, 現(xiàn)在我們?cè)賮碚勔幌略诜娇蛑写蚬匆约安扇⌒袆?dòng)所面臨的困難。明天存更多的錢讓這些困難變得簡(jiǎn)單。他是一個(gè)自動(dòng)駕駛儀，一旦你告訴我你想要在未來存更多的錢， let's say every January you're going to be saving more automatically and it's going to go away from your paycheck to the 401(k) plan before you see it, before you touch it, before you get the issue of immediate gratification. But what are we going to do about the monkeys and loss aversion? 比如說每個(gè)一月份開始，你都想開始存更多的錢。那么在你看到或拿到你的工資前，一部分錢就已經(jīng)賺到了你的401退休福利計(jì)劃當(dāng)中，這樣你就不會(huì)有因?yàn)榧皶r(shí)的喜悅而難以選擇的問題。但是我們應(yīng)該怎么處理那些猴子和由損失引起的憤恨情緒呢？Next January comes and people might feel that if they save more, they have to spend less, and that's painful. Well, maybe it shouldn't be just January. Maybe we should make people save more when they make more money. 當(dāng)明年一月份來臨的時(shí)候，人們可能會(huì)覺得如果他們存更多的錢，那么他們需要少花錢，他們因此而心痛，也許我們不應(yīng)該僅僅從一月份開始。當(dāng)人們賺的越多的時(shí)候我們就應(yīng)該讓他們存的更多。 That way, when they make more money, when they get a pay raise, they don't have to cut their spending. They take a little bit of the increase in the paycheck home and spend more -- take a little bit of the increase and put it in a 401(k) plan.這樣的話，當(dāng)他們賺的越多，當(dāng)他們的收入升高的時(shí)候，他們就不需要減少開支了。他們可以將漲的工資的一部分拿回家，增加開銷，然后再多拿出一點(diǎn)投入到401退休福利計(jì)劃當(dāng)中。So that is the program, embarrassingly simple, but as we're going to see, extremely powerful. We first implemented it, Richard Thaler and I, back in 1998. 這就是我們的項(xiàng)目非常非常的簡(jiǎn)單，但是我們將會(huì)看到非常有效的成果。理查德·泰勒和我最初施行這個(gè)項(xiàng)目是在1998年的時(shí)候。 Mid-sized company in the Midwest, blue collar employees struggling to pay their bills repeatedly told us they cannot save more right away. Saving more today is not an option. 在中西部的中型公司中的藍(lán)領(lǐng)工人中間推行的。他們掙扎在交各種賬單，他們不斷地告訴我們他們不能馬上存下來錢。今天存更多的錢不是可行的。We invited them to save three percentage points more every time they get a pay raise. And here are the results. We're seeing here a three and a half-year period, four pay raises, people who were struggling to save, were saving three percent of their paycheck, three and a half years later saving almost four times as much, almost 14 percent.那么我們就讓他們?cè)诿看螡q工資的時(shí)候，都多存3%的錢。那么結(jié)果就是在三年半的時(shí)間內(nèi)，他們的收入漲了四次。那些很難存下錢的人就存下了他們工資的3%，三年半之后他們就存下了大約四倍的數(shù)量，也就是大約14%。And there's shoes and bicycles and things on this chart because I don't want to just throw numbers in a vacuum. I want, really, to think about the fact that saving four times more is a huge difference in terms of the lifestyle that people will be able to afford. 就相當(dāng)于買鞋和自行車的錢，以及在這張表上顯示的其他物品，因?yàn)槲也粌H僅想憑空用數(shù)字說話，我真的想要想一下這個(gè)事實(shí)，那就是多存四倍的錢真的會(huì)在人們能支付的其的生活方式上有很大的不同。 It's real. It's not just numbers on a piece of paper. Whereas with saving three percent, people might have to add nice sneakers so they can walk, because they won't be able to afford anything else, when they save 14 percent they might be able to maybe have nice dress shoes to walk to the car to drive. 這是真的，這不僅僅是一張紙上的數(shù)字，然而當(dāng)只存3%的錢的時(shí)候 ，人們可能只能買新的平板鞋為了走路，因?yàn)樗麄冐?fù)擔(dān)不起其他的東西。要是他們存14%的話，他們可能就有錢買漂亮的禮服鞋穿著，開車出去玩這是很大的不同。This is a real difference. By now, about 60 percent of the large companies actually have programs like this in place. It's been part of the Pension Protection Act. And needless to say that Thaler and I have been blessed to be part of this program and make a difference.到現(xiàn)在，有60%左右的大型公司已經(jīng)實(shí)際上推行了這樣的項(xiàng)目，這是養(yǎng)老金保護(hù)法案的一部分，無需贅言泰勒和我也有幸成為這個(gè)項(xiàng)目的一部分，并且做出了一些改變。Let me wrap with two key messages. One is behavioral finance is extremely powerful. This is just one example. Message two is there's still a lot to do. This is really the tip of the iceberg. 讓我來總結(jié)兩條重點(diǎn)：第一點(diǎn)是行為金融學(xué)是非常強(qiáng)大的，這僅僅是其中的一個(gè)例子。第二點(diǎn)就是，我們要做的還有很多這僅僅是冰山一角。 If you think about people and mortgages and buying houses and then not being able to pay for it, we need to think about that. If you're thinking about people taking too much risk and not understanding how much risk they're taking or taking too little risk, we need to think about that. 如果你想一下人們與按揭貸款，人們?cè)谫I房子但是他們卻根本支付不起，這是我們需要考慮的問題之一；我們還需要想，要是人們承擔(dān)了過多的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)卻不知道他們到底承擔(dān)了多少風(fēng)險(xiǎn)，或者是承擔(dān)的太少的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)該怎么辦？If you think about people spending a thousand dollars a year on lottery tickets, we need to think about that. The average actually, the record is in Singapore. 我們還要想如果有人一年花1000美元在樂透彩上，該怎么辦？實(shí)際上，平均而言新加坡的數(shù)據(jù)就是如此。 The average house holdspends $4,000 a year on lottery tickets. We've got a lot to do, a lot to solve, also in the retirement area when it comes to what people do with their money after retirement.在那里每家每年花費(fèi)4000美元在買樂透彩上，我們要做的還有很多我們有許多問題要解決。還有一個(gè)關(guān)于退休的問題是當(dāng)退休之后人們?nèi)绾畏峙渌麄兊腻X？One last question: How many of you feel comfortable that as you're planning for retirement you have a really solid plan when you're going to retire, when you're going to claim Social Security benefits, what lifestyle to expect, how much to spend every month so you're not going to run out of money? 最后一個(gè)問題當(dāng)你們?yōu)橥诵荻蛩愕臅r(shí)候，你們當(dāng)中有多少人可以說關(guān)于你們何時(shí)退休你有一個(gè)很穩(wěn)定的計(jì)劃，什么時(shí)候去領(lǐng)社會(huì)保障金？退休后過什么樣的生活？每個(gè)月需要花多少錢才能保證錢足夠花？ How many of you feel you have a solid plan for the future when it comes to post-retirement decisions. One, two, three, four. Less than three percent of a very sophisticated audience. Behavioral finance has a long way. There's a lot of opportunities to make it powerful again and again and again.當(dāng)談到退休后的決定的時(shí)候在座有多少人認(rèn)為你們對(duì)于未來的打算穩(wěn)妥了呢？一二三四在這些經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富的觀眾中只有不到3%。行為金融學(xué)還有很長(zhǎng)的路要走還有很多機(jī)會(huì)將它變得越來越強(qiáng)大。Thank you. 非常感謝。
