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CNN Money: 巴菲特為何死守華盛頓郵報(bào)
imeigu.com 2010-11-08 20:48:07 來(lái)源:新浪財(cái)經(jīng) 原文鏈接
http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/comment/20101108/20478919229.shtml

導(dǎo)語(yǔ):CNNMoney助理執(zhí)行總編保羅-莫尼卡(Paul R. LaMonica)11月8日發(fā)表評(píng)論文章稱(chēng),Kaplan教育部門(mén)是華盛頓郵報(bào)(WPO,399.26,+0.22%)最主要的業(yè)務(wù),占公司總營(yíng)收的近三分之二和運(yùn)營(yíng)利潤(rùn)的四分之三,然而該部門(mén)面臨巨大的監(jiān)管風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。作者向巴菲特建議,現(xiàn)在是時(shí)候鎖定高達(dá)60倍的長(zhǎng)期投資利潤(rùn)了。

以下是莫尼卡的專(zhuān)欄文章全譯:

投資大師沃倫-巴菲特(Warren Buffett)顯然不需要我的投資建議,或者即便需要也可能不會(huì)聽(tīng)取。

不過(guò)我還是要給“奧馬哈先知”(Oracle ofOmaha)提一個(gè)善意的建議:你也許應(yīng)該重新考慮一下是否仍有必要持有那么多華盛頓郵報(bào)(WashingtonPost)(WPO)的股份。

上周五公司公布了不錯(cuò)的財(cái)報(bào),股價(jià)上漲3%,但是該股今年迄今仍下跌將近10%,令其成為伯克希爾哈薩韋(BerkshireHathaway)投資組合中表現(xiàn)最差的股票之一。伯克希爾是華盛頓郵報(bào)最大的機(jī)構(gòu)股東。

當(dāng)然,巴菲特并不在意股價(jià)的短期波動(dòng),他追求的是長(zhǎng)期回報(bào)。

自從巴菲特在20世紀(jì)70年代早期以大約1100萬(wàn)美元買(mǎi)進(jìn)華盛頓郵報(bào)以來(lái),它一直是一筆回報(bào)極端豐厚的投資。即便經(jīng)過(guò)今年下跌之后,巴菲特頭寸的價(jià)值仍約為6.75億美元。

不過(guò),華盛頓郵報(bào)未來(lái)面臨著嚴(yán)重的監(jiān)管問(wèn)題。

實(shí)際上華盛頓郵報(bào)最大的業(yè)務(wù)是Kaplan教育部門(mén)。該部門(mén)占公司總營(yíng)收的將近三分之二和運(yùn)營(yíng)利潤(rùn)的四分之三。

教育部正在對(duì)營(yíng)利教育公司施加極為嚴(yán)格的監(jiān)管,原因是擔(dān)心即將畢業(yè)的學(xué)生無(wú)法找到教育部所認(rèn)為的“有收益的就業(yè)”,亦即找到報(bào)酬較高的工作,讓畢業(yè)生足以輕松償還助學(xué)貸款。

由于投資者擔(dān)心更嚴(yán)厲的教育新規(guī)可能導(dǎo)致招生人數(shù)大幅下降,上市的教育公司今年股價(jià)均大幅跳水,包括Apollo(APOL)、DeVry(DV)和ITT Educational Services(ESI)等。另外還有一個(gè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),那就是這些學(xué)??赡軟](méi)有資格獲得太多聯(lián)邦資助。

Apollo已經(jīng)暗示它預(yù)計(jì)2011年招生人數(shù)會(huì)急劇下降。在上周五的財(cái)報(bào)中,華盛頓郵報(bào)稱(chēng)即將來(lái)臨的教育新規(guī)可能“給Kaplan的運(yùn)營(yíng)業(yè)績(jī)?cè)斐蓪?shí)質(zhì)的負(fù)面影響”。

考慮到大部分華盛頓郵報(bào)多頭長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)都將其教育部門(mén)視為公司真正的價(jià)值所在,而不是其聲譽(yù)卓著的報(bào)紙業(yè)務(wù),這便使得很難為投資該股找到恰當(dāng)?shù)睦碛伞?/p>

出版業(yè)務(wù)僅占華盛頓郵報(bào)總資產(chǎn)的14%上下,而且還在虧錢(qián)。今年華盛頓郵報(bào)甚至最終將其苦苦掙扎的《新聞周刊》雜志以1美元售出。

不過(guò)巴菲特本人也承認(rèn),盡管持有華盛頓郵報(bào)以及《今日美國(guó)》(USAToday)的出版商Gannett,他對(duì)報(bào)紙行業(yè)已經(jīng)不再那么看好。在伯克希爾2009年的股東年會(huì)上,他說(shuō)出版商面臨著“虧損不止”的可能性。

華盛頓郵報(bào)還持有有線(xiàn)和廣播電視業(yè)務(wù)。

較小的廣播部門(mén)今年表現(xiàn)強(qiáng)勁,這要感謝汽車(chē)廣告的回升以及與中期選舉相關(guān)的政治廣告的巨大提振。但是有線(xiàn)部門(mén)的利潤(rùn)和銷(xiāo)售今年相對(duì)保持平穩(wěn)。這兩個(gè)部門(mén)中任何一個(gè)都沒(méi)有大到足以補(bǔ)償Kaplan的動(dòng)蕩。

有了這些了解之后,你便不得不懷疑巴菲特可能最終決定減持華盛頓郵報(bào)。盡管他并非持有該股的唯一的價(jià)值投資大師——梅森-霍金斯(MasonHawkins)的東南資產(chǎn)管理公司是第二大機(jī)構(gòu)股東,空頭投資者正在賭跌華盛頓郵報(bào)。

華盛頓郵報(bào)的做空興趣占公司流通股份的比例達(dá)到驚人的37%。所謂做空興趣,是指投資者通過(guò)融券方式所持有的、已經(jīng)賣(mài)出而尚未回補(bǔ)的股份比例。

“教育部”故事是一個(gè)如此巨大的不確定因素,相信短時(shí)期內(nèi)不會(huì)煙消云散。因此,我們有理由認(rèn)為做空者將繼續(xù)對(duì)公司展開(kāi)狩獵。

因此如果巴菲特愿意聽(tīng)我的建議,我會(huì)告訴他現(xiàn)在應(yīng)該是將華盛頓郵報(bào)套現(xiàn)的時(shí)候了。過(guò)去的長(zhǎng)期持有是一個(gè)巨大的成功,但未來(lái)看起來(lái)令人難以置信地艱難。

的確,該股對(duì)應(yīng)2011年預(yù)期盈利的市盈率為14倍,可能似乎很便宜。但是由于Kaplan問(wèn)題,預(yù)期可能會(huì)下調(diào)。巴菲特以其善于尋找價(jià)值而聞名于世,而非價(jià)值陷阱。(誠(chéng)之)

Why does Buffett still like WashingtonPost?

http://money.cnn.com/2010/11/05/news/companies/thebuzz/

Despite its corporate name,Washington Post's biggest business is its Kaplan educationdivision. Regulatory concerns have led to a pullback in thestock. By Paul R.La Monica, assistant managing editorFirst Published: November 5, 2010: 1:33 PMET


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Investing guru Warren Buffettobviously doesn't need or probably want my investing advice.

But for what it's worth, here's a friendly suggestion for theOracle of Omaha: You might want to reconsider whether it's stillworth owning so many shares of Washington Post Co. (WPO,Fortune 500).

Investing legend Warren Buffett has ownedWashington Post since the 1970s. But the company's recent troublesmay be a reason for Berkshire to sell its stake.

The company reported decent earnings Friday and shares were up3%. But the stock is still down nearly 10% so far this year, makingit one of the worst-performers in the Berkshire Hathaway (BRKB)portfolio. Berkshire is the largest institutional shareholder ofWashington Post.

Of course, Buffett doesn't care about short-term gyrations instocks. He's in it for the long haul.

And Washington Post has been an insanely profitable investmentfor him since he bought shares in the company in the early 1970sfor about $11 million. Even after this year's haircut, that stakeis now worth approximately $675 million.

Still, Washington Post faces a major regulatory problem goingforward.

Washington Post's biggest business is actually its Kaplaneducation division. That makes up nearly two-thirds of thecompany's sales and three-quarters of its operating profit.

The Department of Education is taking a much tougher look atfor-profit education companies because of concerns that studentsare graduating and not able to find what the department considers"gainful employment" -- i.e. well-paying enough jobs to allow thealumni to easily pay back their student loans.

Shares of other publicly traded education companies, such asApollo (APOL),DeVry (DV)and ITT Educational Services (ESI),have all plunged this year on concerns that more stringentEducation rules will lead to sharp drops in enrollment. There'salso the risk that these schools will not be able to qualify for asmuch federal funding.

Apollo has already indicated it expects a sharp decline inenrollment in 2011. And in its earnings report Friday, WashingtonPost said that pending Education rule changes could have "amaterial adverse effect on Kaplan's operating results."

Considering that most Washington Post bulls have long maintainedthat the jewel of the company is really the education division andnot its widely respected newspaper, it makes it harder to justifywhy the stock is a compelling investment.

The publishing business only accounts for about 14% of its totalsales. It's also losing money. Washington Post even finally soldits struggling Newsweek magazine this year -- for $1.

And Buffett himself has admitted that despite owning theWashington Post, along with shares of USA Today publisherGannett (GCI,Fortune 500), he is no longer that big a fan of the business.At Berkshire's 2009 annual shareholder meeting, he said publishersfaced the possibility of "unending losses."

Washington Post also owns cable and broadcast televisionbusinesses.

The smaller broadcast division is having a strong year thanks toa pick-up in auto advertising and a huge boost in political adstied to the midterm elections. But the cable side's profits andsales have been relatively flat this year. And neither of thosedivisions is large enough to compensate for more turmoil inKaplan.

Add all that up and you have to wonder if Buffett may finallydecide to cut Washington Post loose. Even though he's not the onlyvalue guru that owns the stock -- Southeastern Asset Management,the firm led by Mason Hawkins, is the second largest institutionalowner -- bearish investors are betting against WaPo.

The so-called short interest in the stock -- i.e. the percentageof shares held by investors who have borrowed the stock, sold itand yet to buy it back -- makes up an astonishing 37% of thecompany's available shares outstanding.

The Education Department saga is such a huge wildcard that it'snot going to go away anytime soon. As such, it's reasonable tothink short sellers will continue to hound the company.

So if Buffett had my ear -- and I would come a lot cheaper thanBerkshire's new investment manager Todd Combs -- I would tell him the timehas come to cash in on Washington Post. It's been a great holdingfor a long time. But the future looks incredibly tough.

Sure, the stock may seem cheap at 14 times 2011 earningsestimates. But estimates are likely to come down due to the Kaplanissue. And Buffett has made his name by looking for values, notvalue traps.

Reader comment of the week. The Fed's QE2 has finallyleft the dock. But many people are worried that Ben Bernanke'sbond-buying program will just create more problems down theroad.

In response to my Wednesdaycolumn about gridlock, John McDonald did his best impersonationof Kansas City Fed president Thomas Hoenig.

"So Ben has set off another squadron of helicopters full ofgreenbacks. Where will they find a home? Who gets them? What willthey be used to buy. Simple, they will continue to re-inflatebubbles: especially the stock market, and commodities. Oh well,here we go again. Anyone care to predict how big these bubbles getbefore they burst?" McDonald wrote.

- The opinions expressed in this commentary are solelythose of Paul R. La Monica. Other than Time Warner, the parent ofCNNMoney.com, and Abbott Laboratories, La Monica does not ownpositions in any individual stocks.  

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