可遇不可求的“生命三角”

不過(guò)，庫(kù)普和他的小組所做的“實(shí)驗(yàn)”根本不能算是對(duì)地震的研究。曾對(duì)1999年土耳其7.8級(jí)大地震進(jìn)行詳細(xì)調(diào)研的抗震減災(zāi)專(zhuān)家佩特（Marla Petal）指出了庫(kù)普犯下來(lái)一個(gè)嚴(yán)重錯(cuò)誤：將炸藥爆破導(dǎo)致的房屋倒塌等同于地震中可能出現(xiàn)的房屋倒塌。庫(kù)普將炸藥置于承重柱內(nèi)部，爆破時(shí)柱子一折房頂就會(huì)像一張大餅一樣平塌（pancake collapse）下來(lái)。但真正的地震給房屋造成的破壞卻并非如此。[4]

地質(zhì)學(xué)家和抗震工程學(xué)家告訴我們，房屋受到地震波襲擊時(shí)，可能發(fā)生各個(gè)方向上的平晃。坍塌也分成房頂平塌、墻體外倒、墻體內(nèi)倒和房頂M形向下彎折幾種。所以，盡管觀察地震造成的廢墟，我們可以發(fā)現(xiàn)在一些位置上確實(shí)存在類(lèi)似的“三角空間”。不過(guò)，在地震發(fā)生時(shí)，人們無(wú)法預(yù)先知道地震的方式、倒塌發(fā)生的方向，也就無(wú)法知道什么地方會(huì)有所謂的三角“求生空間”。

強(qiáng)調(diào)“生命三角”可能帶來(lái)的一個(gè)顯而易見(jiàn)的問(wèn)題是，原本你指望用來(lái)支撐“三角”的支撐物很快就倒下了。在一次日本利用振動(dòng)臺(tái)進(jìn)行的地震模擬實(shí)驗(yàn)中，佩特博士就看到一臺(tái)巨大的冰箱劃過(guò)整間房屋，在翻了幾個(gè)跟斗之后將實(shí)驗(yàn)中的“兒童”擠扁。同樣，你或許從網(wǎng)上看到地震過(guò)后汽車(chē)旁形成“生命三角”的照片，也許覺(jué)得沉重的汽車(chē)會(huì)一直呆在原地?？蓪?shí)際上，汽車(chē)在地震中很容易被掀起來(lái)甚至翻倒，但你頭上卻未必有危險(xiǎn)的高架路面。[1]

地震口訣：伏地、遮擋、手抓牢（Drop，cover and hold on）

美國(guó)紅十字會(huì)災(zāi)難教育部前總管羅伯茨（Rocky Lopes）強(qiáng)調(diào)，根據(jù)對(duì)加州地震生還者所作的綜合統(tǒng)計(jì)，地震最危險(xiǎn)的傷害因素并非轟然塌下的屋頂，而是四處亂飛的家什和碎玻璃?！胺?、遮擋、手抓牢”（Drop，cover and hold on）的地震口訣正是針對(duì)這個(gè)。這個(gè)口訣教導(dǎo)大家，在地震來(lái)臨時(shí)要趕緊鉆到桌子下邊或用靠墊捂住最脆弱的頭部，手牢牢抓住桌子腿并做好桌子大幅度移動(dòng)的準(zhǔn)備。

此外，在地震中，人很難移動(dòng)位置。移動(dòng)的距離越遠(yuǎn)、時(shí)間越長(zhǎng)，在這途中受到各種雜物襲擊的危險(xiǎn)性也會(huì)大大增加。在美國(guó)地震最頻繁的地區(qū)加州開(kāi)展的公共健康調(diào)查顯示，在地震中，人們跑來(lái)跑去找地方躲或者猶豫不決，確實(shí)會(huì)大大增加被飛在空中的東西打中的概率。這也許恰好可以解釋佩特從加州和土耳其地震中得到的令人費(fèi)解的統(tǒng)計(jì)結(jié)果——對(duì)地震發(fā)生時(shí)正躺在床上的人來(lái)說(shuō)，躺著不動(dòng)者受到傷害的概率要小于翻身下床者。[1]

值得一提的是，庫(kù)普在宣傳其“生命三角救生法”時(shí)，指責(zé)“伏地、遮擋、手抓牢”的口訣是“殺人的方法”。他的觀點(diǎn)建立在極端設(shè)定的基礎(chǔ)上：1、在地震中房屋必定倒塌；2、房屋的倒塌必定導(dǎo)致里面的家具完全被砸碎。

不過(guò)，不是每棟建筑都會(huì)在地震中倒塌，也不是每一場(chǎng)造成傷亡的地震都會(huì)導(dǎo)致房屋的嚴(yán)重倒塌。但幾乎所有會(huì)造成人員傷亡的地震中，都肯定會(huì)出現(xiàn)家什、碎玻璃亂飛的情況。它們帶來(lái)的傷害常常是致命的。

即便是發(fā)生了房屋倒塌這樣的嚴(yán)重情況，“伏地、遮擋、手抓牢”同樣是有意義的。地震救援專(zhuān)家發(fā)現(xiàn)即使房屋倒塌了，桌子之類(lèi)的家具也常常能為人們提供保護(hù)。[5]而隨抗震減災(zāi)工作的開(kāi)展，“中國(guó)近年修建的七層以下居民樓采用現(xiàn)澆鋼筋混凝土的磚混結(jié)構(gòu)，更高的則采取框架結(jié)構(gòu)，也是現(xiàn)澆的，這些房屋的屋頂不會(huì)掉下來(lái)。”[1]“伏地、遮擋、手抓牢”口決在這種情況下會(huì)更加有效。

伊朗國(guó)際地震工程學(xué)和地震學(xué)研究院的Mohammadreza MAHDAVIFAR博士2009年發(fā)表的論文則比較了“伏地、遮擋、手抓牢”和“生命三角”這兩種方法的優(yōu)劣。研究的結(jié)論仍然是“伏地、遮擋、手抓牢”口訣是更好的選擇。[6]

“英雄”還是“投機(jī)主義者”？

“生命三角救生法”的倡導(dǎo)人庫(kù)普自詡是全世界最有經(jīng)驗(yàn)的救援隊(duì)“美國(guó)國(guó)際救援隊(duì)”隊(duì)長(zhǎng)。不過(guò)，這個(gè)名字很唬人的機(jī)構(gòu)只是他創(chuàng)建的一家公司，并不隸屬于美國(guó)政府或是其他的機(jī)構(gòu)。[7]雖然他自稱(chēng)曾任聯(lián)合國(guó)減災(zāi)小組編號(hào)為UNX051的專(zhuān)家，但曾指導(dǎo)過(guò)聯(lián)合國(guó)的全球減災(zāi)十年計(jì)劃（International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction ，IDNDR）的菲利普?伯樂(lè)（Philippe Boulle）說(shuō)，庫(kù)普提及的編號(hào)其實(shí)只是聯(lián)合國(guó)曾經(jīng)使用過(guò)的電子郵箱地址。[8]庫(kù)普聲稱(chēng)曾經(jīng)搜索過(guò)894處大樓廢墟，救出了超過(guò)12萬(wàn)人，在委內(nèi)瑞拉為數(shù)百名兒童治皮膚病，拯救印度人民于瘟疫的水深火熱，在世貿(mào)中心倒塌救援中中毒，并因此從“9?11”受害者基金獲得了64.9萬(wàn)的補(bǔ)償……然而美國(guó)司法部發(fā)現(xiàn)他在“9?11事件”中并沒(méi)有做什么救援工作，也并沒(méi)有像他聲稱(chēng)的那樣受到了嚴(yán)重的傷害，并因此對(duì)他展開(kāi)調(diào)查和訴訟。[9]按照他提供的網(wǎng)站也沒(méi)有找到可求證的獲救者信息。[1]種種跡象表明，這位“英雄”更像是一個(gè)投機(jī)主義者。

結(jié)論：謠言破解。 “生命三角救生法”所教導(dǎo)的“在地震來(lái)時(shí)，要到桌子、冰箱、沙發(fā)，甚至報(bào)紙堆旁蹲下”的做法是不正確的。你無(wú)法預(yù)知所謂的“生命三角”在哪里，而在“生命三角”形成之前，你可能早就先被飛來(lái)的各種雜物打傷。

參考資料：

[1] 科學(xué)松鼠會(huì)：尋找地震中的避難港

[2] Snopes_ Triangle of Life

[3] Video: Triangle of Life

[4] THE NEED FOR AN EVIDENCE-BASIS FOR EARTHQUAKE SURVIVAL TIPS

[5] Protect Yourself During an Earthquake...Drop, Cover, and Hold On!

[6] Appropriate and Correct Reactions during Earthquakes: “Drop, Cover and Hold on” or “Triangle of Life”; Mahdavifar, M., Izadkhah, Y.O., Heshmati, V. ; Journal of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, SPRING 2009; 11(1):42-48.

[7] American Red Cross response to "Triangle of Life" by Doug Copp

[8] 'Knucklehead' or Hero?

[9] The Triangle of Life Myth

What about the "Triangle of Life" e-mail that has been circulating for years?

Many people ask me about an e-mail that circulates with regularity describing the so-called Triangle of Life approach to avoiding injury during an earthquake.  This theory, which holds that one should get NEXT to something uncompressible rather than UNDER something sturdy, has been rejected by many emergency management organizations as being based on a number of incorrect assumptions and questionable premises, and these organizations have predicted that this approach is more likely to cost lives than to save them if the earthquake occurs in a country like the U.S. that has well-constructed buildings.

Recently, the American Red Cross has taken an aggressive stance against what it views as dangerous mis-information that is continuing to propagate.  I recommend that you read their official statement.

It is also well worth looking at the links accumulated here by an impressive array of emergency organizations that reject the Triangle of Life approach and explain why.  Especially interesting as well is apoint-by-point rebuttal of the different recommendations that comprise the Triangle theory.  Here are just a few examples of the interesting points raised:

- While safe pockets have been found next to large objects like cars, the object would have shifted or rolled over and the person would have been crushed before the "safe" pocket found its final home.  (Similarly, just because protected zones are sometimes found next to non-compressible objects does not mean that all non-compressible objects will result in a protected zone.)

- In developed countries, the vast majority of building failures results in crumbling and rubble, rather than intact ceilings coming down.  Being next to an object does not shelter you from being buried under the rubble.

- In a Turkish study referenced by the creator of the Triangle of Life concept, a simulation of a tall building being knocked down resulted in collapse of whole floors onto each other (pancaking), but that was not a real earthquake simulation.  It simply rammed the pillars and did not include side-to-side motion that creates much of the damage and that may send objects sideways into potential safe pockets.

It is also extremely interesting to see what the reputable myth-bustingSnopes website has to say about the issue (search for "triangle").

If you have received this e-mail (who hasn't?), and especially if you have forwarded it on yourself, I urge you to look at these links and pass along the information to anyone to whom you may have forwarded the "Triangle of Life," or to those who send it to you.

The major emergency organizations agree: the best thing to do in an earthquake is to "drop, cover, and hold."  That is, get under something sturdy and hold on to it so that you can move with the object if it moves itself.

 source:

http://homepage.mac.com/matthewlspringer/earthquake/triangle.html