Apr 7th 2018
OVER the past few decades, established airlines in Europe and America have been hit by one thing after another. First came low-cost carriers, chipping away at their short-haul routes. Lately, a new crop of super-connecting airlines in the Gulf, Emirates, Etihad and Qatar Airways, has lured away their long-haul passengers with superior service and lower fares. Now looms the biggest threat of all—the rise of several promising Chinese airlines. Unfortunately, the response of the incumbents risks depriving passengers of the benefits from this latest wave of competition.
在過去的幾十年里，歐洲和美國的老牌航空公司都被一件接一件的事情所打擊。首先是低成本的航空公司，削減了他們的短途航線。最近，海灣地區(qū)、阿聯(lián)酋航空、阿提哈德航空公司和卡塔爾航空公司的新一批超級(jí)中轉(zhuǎn)航空公司，以優(yōu)質(zhì)的服務(wù)和較低的票價(jià)吸引了長途旅客。現(xiàn)在，隱約出現(xiàn)了最大的威脅——幾家有前途的中國航空公司的崛起。不幸的是，現(xiàn)存公司的反應(yīng)可能會(huì)剝奪乘客在最近一波競爭的受益。
China’s airlines are rising up the world rankings at a breathtaking pace. In 2007 passengers in China made 184m journeys by air; last year around 550m did. The International Air Transport Association, a trade group, predicts that China will leapfrog America as the world’s biggest market in the coming five years. During the next two decades Airbus and Boeing, the world’s two big manufacturers of passenger aircraft, forecast that Chinese carriers will buy more jets than American ones.
中國的航空公司以驚人的速度在世界排名中上升。2007年，中國的乘客乘飛機(jī)旅行了18400萬人次;去年大約有5500萬人。國際航空運(yùn)輸協(xié)會(huì)，一個(gè)貿(mào)易組織，預(yù)測中國將在未來五年內(nèi)超越美國成為世界上最大的市場。世界上最大的兩家客機(jī)制造商——空中客車公司和波音公司預(yù)測，在接下來的20年里中國的航空公司將比美國航空公司購買更多的飛機(jī)。
Passengers who had a choice used to avoid Chinese airlines. Delays were common, accidents frequent and the food inedible. However, after a concerted effort to improve standards, they are winning flyers over. OAG, a data firm, reckons that in 2011-17 the proportion of passenger seats between China and America on Chinese airlines rose from 37% to 61%.
可以選擇的乘客通常會(huì)避開中國的航空公司，因?yàn)檠舆t是常見的，事故頻發(fā)，食物不難吃。然而，在共同努力提高標(biāo)準(zhǔn)之后，他們贏得了乘客。數(shù)據(jù)公司OAG估計(jì)，在2011-17年，中國和美國在中國航空公司的乘客座位比例從37%上升到61%。
Losing the battle to fly people in and out of China is one thing. But the menace to the world’s established carriers goes deeper. Just as the Gulf airlines expanded by offering connecting flights to international passengers through their Middle Eastern hubs so, too, are Chinese airlines turning themselves into connectors. The cheapest way to get from London to Australia, for instance, is no longer via Dubai or Abu Dhabi but through Guangzhou, Shanghai or Wuhan. The Chinese authorities have loosened visa requirements to encourage this kind of transfer traffic.
失去飛入飛出中國航空的戰(zhàn)斗是一回事。但是，對世界老牌航空公司的威脅更加嚴(yán)重。就像海灣航空公司通過他們的中東樞紐向國際乘客提供轉(zhuǎn)機(jī)一樣，中國航空公司也將自己變成了中轉(zhuǎn)站。例如，從倫敦到澳大利亞的最便宜的方式，不再是通過迪拜或阿布扎比，而是通過廣州、上?；蛭錆h。中國當(dāng)局放寬了簽證要求，以鼓勵(lì)這種中轉(zhuǎn)交通。
China’s arrival as an aviation superpower has prompted two responses from big Western carriers—both predictable, neither good. The Europeans are crying foul about government aid, just as they did when the Gulf airlines became a threat. The bosses of Air France-KLM and Lufthansa wail that they are the victims of “unfair trade”. They are lobbying for rules that would let the European Union place unilateral sanctions on subsidised foreign rivals, Chinese carriers among them, even before any investigation has been concluded.
中國作為航空超級(jí)大國的到來，促使西方大型航空公司做出了兩種反應(yīng)——兩個(gè)都是可預(yù)測的，但不太好。歐洲人對政府援助感到不滿，就像他們在海灣航空公司成為威脅時(shí)所做的那樣。法荷航空和德國漢莎航空的老板們哀嘆道，他們是“不公平貿(mào)易”的受害者。他們正在游說，要求歐盟對享受補(bǔ)貼的外國競爭對手，包括中國在內(nèi)的航空公司，進(jìn)行單方面制裁，甚至在任何調(diào)查尚未結(jié)束之前。
The fact that Chinese airlines benefit from support from the state is not in question. But the outrage of rivals is shamelessly confected. Around the world, the aviation industry has been built on government support. CE Delft, a research firm, reckons that French airlines get €1bn ($1.2bn) in energy subsidies alone each year. Unilateral sanctions might benefit incumbents, but would restrict choice and harm passengers. A tit-for-tat battle over flying rights would hit Europe harder than China, which is fast becoming a sizeable net exporter of tourists.
中國航空公司從政府的支持中獲益的事實(shí)是毫無疑問的。但是，競爭對手的憤怒是無恥的。在全球范圍內(nèi)，航空工業(yè)是建立都在政府支持的基礎(chǔ)上的。研究公司CE Delft估計(jì)，法國航空公司每年僅能獲得10億歐元（合12億美元）的能源補(bǔ)貼。單邊制裁可能有利于現(xiàn)任的航空公司，但會(huì)限制選擇并傷害乘客。一場關(guān)于飛行權(quán)利的針鋒相對的戰(zhàn)斗將會(huì)對歐洲產(chǎn)生比中國更嚴(yán)重的打擊，中國正迅速成為一個(gè)龐大的游客凈出口國。
The big three American carriers have taken a different tack. They are also happy to play the protectionist card when it suits them. American, Delta and United have all been lobbying hard against the Gulf carriers, for instance. But with China they sniff an opportunity as well as a threat. They want an open-skies treaty, which would allow airlines to fly between any airport in the two countries.
美國三大航空公司采取了不同的策略。他們也樂于在適合的時(shí)候打出保護(hù)主義的牌。例如，美國航空、達(dá)美航空和美聯(lián)航都在大力游說，抵制海灣航空公司。但對于中國，他們既嗅到了機(jī)遇，也嗅到了威脅。他們想要一個(gè)開放的航空條約，允許航空公司在兩國的任何機(jī)場之間飛行。
Fare trade
In theory, passengers have much to gain from a deal of this sort. In practice, open-skies deals open the door to joint ventures (JVs), which are granted immunity from antitrust rules and so can potentially lead to higher prices. In 2006-16 the share of long-haul passenger traffic controlled by such JVs leapt from 5% to 25%. Three JVs account for almost 80% of the transatlantic market. The established American airlines would love to team up with Chinese rivals in order to dominate the Pacific, too.
從理論上講，乘客會(huì)從這類交易中獲得很多好處。在實(shí)踐中，開放航空交易為合資企業(yè)（JVs）打開了大門，合資企業(yè)獲得了反壟斷規(guī)則的豁免權(quán)，因此有可能導(dǎo)致更高的價(jià)格。在2006-16年，由此類合資企業(yè)控制的長途客運(yùn)業(yè)務(wù)份額從5%躍升至25%。三家合資企業(yè)占據(jù)了大西洋兩岸近80%的市場份額。老牌的美國航空公司也希望與中國的競爭對手合作，以便在太平洋地區(qū)占據(jù)主導(dǎo)地位。
Neither shutout nor carve-up is good for passengers. In an ideal world, Europe and America would seek open-skies deals with China but design them to nurture competition rather than mute it. Airline JVs would be barred from gaining antitrust immunity. Airport slots would be allocated more fairly, so that the best landing and take-off times were not hoarded. State handouts would be transparent.
對乘客來說，無論是關(guān)閉還是分拆都不是好事。在一個(gè)理想的世界里，歐洲和美國將尋求與中國的開放航空的協(xié)議，但設(shè)計(jì)它們來培育競爭，而不是削弱競爭。航空公司的合資公司將被禁止獲得反壟斷豁免權(quán)。航空起隆時(shí)段將會(huì)更公平地分配，這樣最好的著陸和起飛時(shí)間就不會(huì)被藏起來。政府的救濟(jì)將是透明的。
Alas, the chances of reaching such a sensible accommodation with China’s airlines are low. Rising trade tensions between America and China are only part of the explanation. The real problem is that big Western carriers would not much like such policies either.
唉，與中國的航空公司達(dá)成如此合理的和解的可能性很小。中美之間不斷加劇的貿(mào)易緊張只是部分原因。真正的問題是，西方大型航空公司也不太喜歡這樣的政策。
This article appeared in the Leaders section of the print edition under the headline "Dragons fly"
英文原文選自《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人》
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