John Murphy's Ten Laws of Technical Trading

約翰·墨菲技術(shù)分析的十條規(guī)則

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StockCharts.com's Chief Technical Analyst, John Murphy, is a very popular author, columnist, and speaker on the subject of Technical Analysis. John's "Ten Laws of Technical Trading" is the best guide available anywhere for people who are new to the field of charting. I urge you to print out this page and refer to it often. If you find this information useful, consider subscribing to StockCharts' Market Message.

Which way is the market moving? How far up or down will it go? And when will it go the other way? These are the basic concerns of the technical analyst. Behind the charts and graphs and mathematical formulas used to analyze market trends are some basic concepts that apply to most of the theories employed by today's technical analysts.

John Murphy, StockCharts.com's Chief Technical Analyst, has drawn upon his thirty years of experience in the field to develop ten basic laws of technical trading: rules that are designed to help explain the whole idea of technical trading for the beginner and to streamline the trading methodology for the more experienced practitioner. These precepts define the key tools of technical analysis and how to use them to identify buying and selling opportunities.

Before joining StockCharts, John was the technical analyst for CNBC-TV for seven years on the popular show Tech Talk, and has authored three best-selling books on the subject: Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets, Intermarket Technical Analysis and The Visual Investor.

His most recent book demonstrates the essential visual elements of technical analysis. The fundamentals of John's approach to technical analysis illustrate that it is more important to determine where a market is going (up or down) rather than the why behind it.

The following are John's ten most important rules of technical trading:

1.
Map the Trends
2.
Spot the Trend and Go With It
3.
Find the Low and High of It
4.
Know How Far to Backtrack
5.
Draw the Line
6.
Follow That Average
7.
Learn the Turns
8.
Know the Warning Signs
9.
Trend or Not a Trend?
10.
Know the Confirming Signs

1. Map the Trends 識別趨勢

Study long-term charts. Begin a chart analysis with monthly and weekly charts spanning several years. A larger scale map of the market provides more visibility and a better long-term perspective on a market. Once the long-term has been established, then consult daily and intra-day charts. A short-term market view alone can often be deceptive. Even if you only trade the very short term, you will do better if you're trading in the same direction as the intermediate and longer term trends.

研究長期圖表。拿到一張圖表，先研究它幾年內(nèi)的周線圖和月線圖。級別較大的市場圖表提供了更寬廣的視野和更好的長期市場觀念。一但長期趨勢建立，那么可以查看日線圖表和日內(nèi)圖表。單獨(dú)的短期市場圖表有時(shí)具有欺騙性。即使你只在一個非常短的周期內(nèi)交易，如果中長期趨勢符合你的操作方向，你會做的更好。

2. Spot the Trend and Go With It 發(fā)現(xiàn)并跟蹤趨勢

Determine the trend and follow it. Market trends come in many sizes – long-term, intermediate-term and short-term. First, determine which one you're going to trade and use the appropriate chart. Make sure you trade in the direction of that trend. Buy dips if the trend is up. Sell rallies if the trend is down. If you're trading the intermediate trend, use daily and weekly charts. If you're day trading, use daily and intra-day charts. But in each case, let the longer range chart determine the trend, and then use the shorter term chart for timing.

認(rèn)定趨勢并跟隨它。市場趨勢有許多種--長期趨勢，中期趨勢，以及短期趨勢。首先，確定你想要交易哪種趨勢，然后使用相應(yīng)的圖表。確定你的開倉方向不與當(dāng)前趨勢相餑。趨勢向上低點(diǎn)買入，趨勢向下高點(diǎn)賣出。如果你交易中期趨勢，使用日線和周線圖表。如果你做日內(nèi)交易，用日線和日內(nèi)圖表。在這兩種情況下，用長期圖表認(rèn)定趨勢，用短期圖表掐準(zhǔn)時(shí)機(jī)。

3. Find the Low and High of It 找到高點(diǎn)和低點(diǎn)

Find support and resistance levels. The best place to buy a market is near support levels. That support is usually a previous reaction low. The best place to sell a market is near resistance levels. Resistance is usually a previous peak. After a resistance peak has been broken, it will usually provide support on subsequent pullbacks. In other words, the old "high" becomes the new low. In the same way, when a support level has been broken, it will usually produce selling on subsequent rallies – the old "low" can become the new "high."

找到支持和阻力線。買入的最好位置是在支撐線附近。支撐線通常是之前反轉(zhuǎn)的低點(diǎn)。賣出的最好位置是在阻力線附近。阻力通常是之前的高點(diǎn)。當(dāng)一個阻力線被擊穿，它會在隨后的拉回走勢里轉(zhuǎn)換為支撐。換言之，前高變新低。同樣的，支撐被擊穿時(shí)，在隨后的上升走勢里會產(chǎn)生賣壓，前低變新高。

4. Know How Far to Backtrack 知道回撤的幅度

Measure percentage retracements. Market corrections up or down usually retrace a significant portion of the previous trend. You can measure the corrections in an existing trend in simple percentages. A fifty percent retracement of a prior trend is most common. A minimum retracement is usually one-third of the prior trend. The maximum retracement is usually two-thirds. Fibonacci retracements of 38% and 62% are also worth watching. During a pullback in an uptrend, therefore, initial buy points are in the 33-38% retracement area.

計(jì)算回撤的百分比。市場向上或向下的糾正走勢時(shí)常導(dǎo)致幅度不小的回撤。在已知的趨勢中我們能用簡單的百分比測量它。50%的回撤最普遍。幅度最小的回撤常常有原趨勢的1/3。最大的回撤通常有2/3。Fibonacci的38%和62%回撤也值得觀察。對于上漲中的回撤，初始買點(diǎn)在回撤的33-38%比較合理。

5. Draw the Line 畫趨勢線

Draw trend lines. Trend lines are one of the simplest and most effective charting tools. All you need is a straight edge and two points on the chart. Up trend lines are drawn along two successive lows. Down trend lines are drawn along two successive peaks. Prices will often pull back to trend lines before resuming their trend. The breaking of trend lines usually signals a change in trend. A valid trend line should be touched at least three times. The longer a trend line has been in effect, and the more times it has been tested, the more important it becomes.

畫趨勢線。趨勢線是最簡單、最有效的工具。只需兩點(diǎn)一線。上升趨勢線連接兩個連續(xù)的低點(diǎn)，下降趨勢線連接兩個連續(xù)的高點(diǎn)。價(jià)格通常會在趨勢線附近拉回，繼而延續(xù)先前走勢。趨勢線的打破通常是一個趨勢反轉(zhuǎn)的信號。一個有效的趨勢線應(yīng)該至少被試探過3次。一條趨勢線被試探的次數(shù)越多，有效的時(shí)間越長，它的重要性也越大。

6. Follow that Average 跟隨移動平均線

Follow moving averages. Moving averages provide objective buy and sell signals. They tell you if existing trend is still in motion and help confirm a trend change. Moving averages do not tell you in advance, however, that a trend change is imminent. A combination chart of two moving averages is the most popular way of finding trading signals. Some popular futures combinations are 4- and 9-day moving averages, 9- and 18-day, 5- and 20-day. Signals are given when the shorter average line crosses the longer. Price crossings above and below a 40-day moving average also provide good trading signals. Since moving average chart lines are trend-following indicators, they work best in a trending market.

跟隨移動平均線。移動平均線提供買入和賣出目標(biāo)價(jià)格。它能告訴我們趨勢是否繼續(xù)有效，也能幫助我們識別趨勢反轉(zhuǎn)。移動平均線不會預(yù)先告訴我們趨勢即將反轉(zhuǎn)。兩天移動平均線組合使用是重要的交易信號。期權(quán)里一些有特點(diǎn)的組合是4天-9天，9天-18天，和5天-20天。當(dāng)短期平均線穿越長期平均線時(shí)給出信號。價(jià)格穿越40天移動平均線也被視作有用的交易信號。移動平均線作為趨勢跟蹤指標(biāo)，他們在市場存在趨勢時(shí)最有效。

7. Learn the Turns 發(fā)現(xiàn)反轉(zhuǎn)

Track oscillators. Oscillators help identify overbought and oversold markets. While moving averages offer confirmation of a market trend change, oscillators often help warn us in advance that a market has rallied or fallen too far and will soon turn. Two of the most popular are the Relative Strength Index (RSI) and Stochastics. They both work on a scale of 0 to 100. With the RSI, readings over 70 are overbought while readings below 30 are oversold. The overbought and oversold values for Stochastics are 80 and 20. Most traders use 14-days or weeks for stochastics and either 9 or 14 days or weeks for RSI. Oscillator divergences often warn of market turns. These tools work best in a trading market range. Weekly signals can be used as filters on daily signals. Daily signals can be used as filters for intra-day charts.

跟蹤振蕩指標(biāo)。振蕩指標(biāo)幫助我們識別市場的超買超賣。當(dāng)移動平均給出市場趨勢反轉(zhuǎn)的信號時(shí)，振蕩指標(biāo)通常預(yù)先警告我們市場漲跌的過猛并且即將反轉(zhuǎn)。兩個最常用的指標(biāo)是RSI和KDJ. 它們的值在0～100. RSI指示超過70顯示超買，低于30顯示超賣。超買超賣在KDJ里的值是80和20。大多數(shù)交易者用KDJ時(shí)選擇14天或者幾周的指標(biāo)，用RSI時(shí)選擇的值是9天，14天或者幾周。振蕩指標(biāo)的背離通常預(yù)示著反轉(zhuǎn)。這些指標(biāo)在振蕩的交易區(qū)間里最有效。周線信號可以用作日線信號的過濾器。日線信號可以為日內(nèi)信號過濾。

8. Know the Warning Signs 識別警告信號

Trade MACD. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator (developed by Gerald Appel) combines a moving average crossover system with the overbought/oversold elements of an oscillator. A buy signal occurs when the faster line crosses above the slower and both lines are below zero. A sell signal takes place when the faster line crosses below the slower from above the zero line. Weekly signals take precedence over daily signals. An MACD histogram plots the difference between the two lines and gives even earlier warnings of trend changes. It's called a "histogram" because vertical bars are used to show the difference between the two lines on the chart.

用MACD交易，MACD結(jié)合了移動平均穿越系統(tǒng)和超買超賣的振蕩指示（由GA開發(fā)）。當(dāng)快線慢線金叉并且兩條線都在0線之上時(shí)給出買入信號，當(dāng)快線慢線死叉并且兩條線都在0 線之下時(shí)給出賣出信號。當(dāng)快線在0線之上下穿慢線時(shí)給出賣出信號。周線信號比日線信號有用。MACD直柱直觀的指示了快慢兩條線的差值，甚至更早的給出了趨勢反轉(zhuǎn)的信號。叫它“直方圖”是因?yàn)橹敝@示了兩條線在圖表中的距離。

9. Trend or Not a Trend 趨勢？非趨勢？

Use ADX. The Average Directional Movement Index (ADX) line helps determine whether a market is in a trending or a trading phase. It measures the degree of trend or direction in the market. A rising ADX line suggests the presence of a strong trend. A falling ADX line suggests the presence of a trading market and the absence of a trend. A rising ADX line favors moving averages; a falling ADX favors oscillators. By plotting the direction of the ADX line, the trader is able to determine which trading style and which set of indicators are most suitable for the current market environment.

使用ADX. ADX線幫助我們認(rèn)定市場處于趨勢還是非趨勢狀態(tài)。它測算了市場當(dāng)前趨勢和方向的程度。上升的ADX線顯示市場處于很強(qiáng)的趨勢之中。下降的ADX線顯示市場處于震蕩區(qū)間，而非趨勢狀。上升的ADX適用于移動平均線，下降的ADX適用于振蕩指標(biāo)。通過觀察ADX線的方向，交易者能夠識別當(dāng)前的趨勢類型和哪種指標(biāo)更適用于當(dāng)前市場。

10. Know the Confirming Signs 了解確認(rèn)信號

Include volume and open interest. Volume and open interest are important confirming indicators in futures markets. Volume precedes price. It's important to ensure that heavier volume is taking place in the direction of the prevailing trend. In an uptrend, heavier volume should be seen on up days. Rising open interest confirms that new money is supporting the prevailing trend. Declining open interest is often a warning that the trend is near completion. A solid price uptrend should be accompanied by rising volume and rising open interest.

了解交易量和持倉量。這兩種指標(biāo)在期權(quán)市場中是重要的確認(rèn)指標(biāo)。成交量的重要性大于價(jià)格。確保在當(dāng)前趨勢中有巨量成交是很重要的。在上升趨勢中，大成交量應(yīng)該伴隨著價(jià)格的上漲。持倉量的增大確認(rèn)了新錢正在進(jìn)入這個趨勢中來。下降的持倉量是趨勢走向末路的警告。穩(wěn)固的價(jià)格上漲應(yīng)該伴隨著增大的成交量和持倉量。

"11."

Technical analysis is a skill that improves with experience and study. Always be a student and keep learning.
- John Murphy

技術(shù)分析是一種技能，隨著經(jīng)驗(yàn)和研究而增長。讓我們永遠(yuǎn)做一個學(xué)生，終身學(xué)習(xí)。---約翰·墨菲


Definitions: Leonardo Fibonacci was a thirteenth century mathematician who "rediscovered" a precise and almost constant relationship between Hindu-Arabic numbers in a sequence (1,1,2,3,5,8,13,21,34,55,89,144,etc. to infinity). The sum of any two consecutive numbers in this sequence equals the next higher number. After the first four, the ratio of any number in the sequence to its next higher number approaches .618. That ratio was known to the ancient Greek and Egyptian mathematicians as the "Golden Mean" which had critical applications in art, architecture and in nature.

定義：菲波那其數(shù)列。

Stochastics - an oscillator popularized by George Lane in an article on the subject which appeared in 1984. It is based on the observation that as prices increase, closing prices tend to be closer to the upper end of the price range; conversely, in down trends, closing prices tend to be near the lower end of the range. Stochastics has slightly wider overbought and oversold boundaries than the RSI and is therefore a more volatile indicator. The term "stochastic" refers to the location of a current futures price in relation to its range over a set period of time (usually 14 days).

KDJ的使用方法。