中文字幕理论片,69视频免费在线观看,亚洲成人app,国产1级毛片,刘涛最大尺度戏视频,欧美亚洲美女视频,2021韩国美女仙女屋vip视频

Money markets and the Fed

貨幣市場與美聯(lián)儲 

Hitting the ceiling

受驚了

注：

此處hit the ceiling理解為雙關(guān)，首先貨幣市場遇到錢荒，repo的隔夜利率飆升碰到了ceiling；其次美聯(lián)儲也被殺了個措手不及，非常雞凍地趕緊注入流動性（這點(diǎn)的理解也歡迎大家一起探討)

The Fed intervenes in short-term money markets for the first time in a decade

美聯(lián)儲10年來首次干預(yù)短期貨幣市場

The federal reserve had plenty to fret about as it prepared to discuss policy interest rates on September 17th and 18th. Trade tensions and wilting global growth have seen businesses cut back investment in the second quarter of the year. In manufacturing, production and capacity utilisation have been falling since the end of 2018. Though the Fed has described jobs growth as “solid”, some analysts worry that the labour market is wobbling. As expected, these concerns prompted the central bank to lower rates for the second time this year, by 0.25 percentage points, to a target of 1.75-2%. But the meeting was overshadowed by turmoil in money markets.

美聯(lián)儲準(zhǔn)備在討論9月17號和18號的利率政策時，有很多值得擔(dān)心的問題。貿(mào)易局勢的緊張和全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的放緩導(dǎo)致企業(yè)在今年第二季度削減了投資;自2018年年底以來，制造業(yè)的生產(chǎn)量以及產(chǎn)能利用率一直在下降;盡管美聯(lián)儲曾稱就業(yè)“穩(wěn)健”增長，但是一些分析師一直擔(dān)心勞動力市場動蕩。不出所料，這些擔(dān)憂促使美聯(lián)儲在今年第二次降息，降息25個基點(diǎn)，聯(lián)邦基金利率目標(biāo)區(qū)間下調(diào)至1.75%-2%。但貨幣市場的動蕩給本次會議蒙上了陰影。

On September 17th, for the first time in a decade, the Fed injected cash into the short-term money market. The intervention was needed after the federal funds rate, at which banks can borrow from each other, climbed above the Fed’s target. It rose as the “repo” rate—the price at which high-quality securities such as American government bonds can be temporarily swapped for cash—hit an intra-day peak of over 10%. On September 17th the Fed offered $75bn-worth of overnight funding, of which banks took up $53bn. The following two days it again offered $75bn-worth. Banks gobbled it up.

9月17日，美聯(lián)儲十年來首次向短期貨幣市場注入資金。聯(lián)邦基金利率是銀行間相互借款的基準(zhǔn)利率，在其攀升超出設(shè)定目標(biāo)之后，干預(yù)是有必要的。隨著回購利率（例如像美國政府債券等優(yōu)質(zhì)債券能夠暫時被兌換為現(xiàn)金的價格）達(dá)到當(dāng)天日間峰值10%，聯(lián)邦基金利率上升。9月17日，美聯(lián)儲提供了750億美元的隔夜融資，其中銀行占了530億美元。接下來的兩天里，美聯(lián)儲再次注入750億美元，銀行很快將其消耗。

注

1.federal funds rate聯(lián)邦基金利率

聯(lián)邦基金利率是美國銀行同業(yè)拆借市場的利率。最主要的為隔夜拆借利率。這種利率的變動能夠敏感地反映銀行之間資金的余缺，美聯(lián)儲瞄準(zhǔn)并調(diào)節(jié)同業(yè)拆借利率能直接影響商業(yè)銀行的資金成本，并且將同業(yè)拆借市場的資金余缺傳遞給工商企業(yè)，進(jìn)而影響消費(fèi)、投資和國民經(jīng)濟(jì)。在聯(lián)邦基金市場中最常被引用的利率是有效聯(lián)邦基金利率。

2.“repo” rate回購利率

銀行間互相持有債券，當(dāng)銀行進(jìn)行回購交易時就會有回購利率。

3.Federal funds rate 和 repo rate的關(guān)系

美國的回購利率源于非銀行金融機(jī)構(gòu)沒有進(jìn)入聯(lián)邦基金利率市場的資格，無法向美聯(lián)儲進(jìn)行借款。所以回購市場成為了非銀行金融機(jī)構(gòu)斬獲隔夜貸款的主要市場，而且它的利率比聯(lián)邦基金利率更低。自此之后，銀行的聯(lián)邦基金利率以及非銀行的回購市場利率成為了美國金融系統(tǒng)中隔夜市場的兩大基準(zhǔn)。

聯(lián)邦基金市場和回購市場總體存在一種正相關(guān)的關(guān)系，但是價差卻總是高低不等。對于市場來說，回購利率和聯(lián)邦基金利率能夠透露很多信息。比如這一價差會在季度末的時候集中反映資金緊張的局面。同時，這一價差往往能顯示市場緊繃的程度或者提醒市場何時杠桿水平過高。

4.overnight funding 隔夜融資

隔夜市場被認(rèn)為是金融市場的基本管道，短期內(nèi)需要現(xiàn)金的銀行在這個市場進(jìn)行融資。

延伸閱讀：

5.紐約聯(lián)儲十年來首次隔夜逆回購

http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/2019-09-19/doc-iicezzrq6826554.shtml

6.聯(lián)邦基金有效利率與目標(biāo)利率之間的關(guān)系

https://wenku.baidu.com/view/0da4cceb5901020206409c34.html

That sent shivers down spines. A spiking repo rate was an early warning sign before the financial crisis. In 2007, as market participants began to doubt the quality of collateral backed by mortgage lending, repo rates jumped as lenders hoarded cash.

這讓人毛骨悚然?；刭徖曙j升是金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)前的一個預(yù)警信號。2007年，由于市場參與者開始懷疑抵押貸款作為抵押品的質(zhì)量，隨著放款人囤積現(xiàn)金，回購利率飆升。

The latest jump was unlikely to have been caused by such doubts. Most collateral is now high-quality American Treasury bonds or bills. Even so, there are reasons to worry. America’s banks and companies seem to be short of cash. And during the turmoil the repo rate stopped tracking the federal funds rate. This link is the main way monetary policy influences the economy. A gap opening between the two deprives the Fed of its most important policy tool.

最近一次利率的飆升不太可能由此類擔(dān)憂引起。大多數(shù)現(xiàn)有的抵押品都是高質(zhì)量的美國長期國債或者短期國庫券。即便這樣，擔(dān)憂來源眾多。美國銀行和公司似乎缺少現(xiàn)金。在動蕩期間，回購利率不再與聯(lián)邦基金利率呈正相關(guān)關(guān)系，而這層關(guān)系正是貨幣政策影響經(jīng)濟(jì)的主要途徑。兩種利率之間逐漸擴(kuò)大的差距會使得美聯(lián)儲最重要的貨幣政策工具失效。

注：Treasury bonds /notes/bills

Treasury bills（短期債券）：投資期限短于一年，不支付利息，折價發(fā)行。

Treasury notes（中期債券）：投資期限1-7年，半年付息一次。

Treasury bonds（長期債券）：投資期限7-25年，半年付息一次。

Fortunately, the Fed’s interventions seemed to work. The repo rate returned to its usual level, close to the federal funds rate, which in turn is within the range targeted by the Fed. Even so, the turmoil raised questions about how it plans to handle future cash shortages. The mere prospect of them marks an important shift for America’s financial system. Before the financial crisis the Fed controlled the federal funds rate using a “corridor”, with a ceiling and a floor. Banks with too little cash could borrow at the ceiling rate. But there was no compensation for extra cash held at the Fed (the floor interest rate was zero). To keep interest rates precisely on target the Fed used “open market operations”, swapping Treasuries and cash to control liquidity in the banking system.

幸運(yùn)的是，美聯(lián)儲的干預(yù)似乎起效了?；刭徖驶氐秸Ｋ?，與處于設(shè)定目標(biāo)范圍內(nèi)的聯(lián)邦基金利率相近。即便如此，此次市場動蕩引發(fā)了人們對美聯(lián)儲未來將如何應(yīng)對資金短缺的疑問。僅這一前景就標(biāo)志著美國金融系統(tǒng)的重要轉(zhuǎn)變。在金融危機(jī)前美聯(lián)儲通過有上下限的“利率走廊”控制著聯(lián)邦基金利率。極度缺少資金的銀行能按上限利率（央行貸款利率）借錢。但是存放在美聯(lián)儲的超額準(zhǔn)備金沒有額外補(bǔ)償（利率下限為0）。為了準(zhǔn)確保持利率在目標(biāo)范圍內(nèi)，美聯(lián)儲使用公開市場操作，通過買賣債券來控制銀行系統(tǒng)內(nèi)的資金流動。

注：陸曉明 《美聯(lián)儲利率政策操作體系的變化趨勢及未來走向》

http://bond.hexun.com/2015-02-13/173367322.html

Six years of quantitative easing changed all that. To push down long-term interest rates, the Fed bought vast quantities of long-dated Treasury bonds. Its balance-sheet ballooned to $4.5trn. The holders—mainly banks—ended up with mountains of cash. To keep market interest rates at or above the policy rate, the Fed was authorised by Congress to raise the floor from zero, compensating banks for their cash that it held. The ceiling became redundant, as did open market operations. Only the floor mattered.

然而，六年的量化寬松政策徹底改變了這一切。為了壓低長期利率，美聯(lián)儲購買了大量的長期債券，其資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表激增至4.5萬億。長期債券的持有者——多數(shù)為銀行——最后擁有大量現(xiàn)金。為了保持市場利率不低于政策利率，國會允許美聯(lián)儲提高利率下限（高于0），以補(bǔ)償銀行存放在美聯(lián)儲的準(zhǔn)備金。如此，利率上限和公開市場操作就變得多余了，僅利率下限起到作用。

But banks’ cash piles have dwindled of late. Since late 2017 the Fed has been reducing its balance-sheet by not reinvesting all the proceeds when its assets mature. The balance-sheet shrank from $4.5trn in 2017 to $3.8trn in June this year. Moreover, a wider budget deficit means the Treasury has had to issue more bills and bonds. So far this year it has issued an average of $63.9bn-worth per month, net of repayments. During the same period in 2017 the monthly figure was just $19.6bn. As banks buy Treasuries, their cash piles fall. The surplus reserves banks hold in their deposit accounts at the Fed fell from $2.2trn in 2017 to $1.4trn now.

但銀行的儲備現(xiàn)金最近有所減少。自2017年末以來，美聯(lián)儲一直通過資產(chǎn)到期后不將所有回收資金進(jìn)行再投資的方式來縮減資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表。資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表從2017年的4.5萬億美元縮減至今年6月的3.8萬億美元。此外，擴(kuò)大的預(yù)算赤字意味著財政部不得不發(fā)行更多的短期債券和長期債券。截止目前為止，扣除還款，財政部每月平均發(fā)行價值639億美元的債券。2017年同期，僅為196億美元。當(dāng)銀行購買國債時，其現(xiàn)金儲備就會減少。銀行在美聯(lián)儲的存款賬戶中持有的盈余準(zhǔn)備金從2017年的2.2萬億美元降至現(xiàn)在的1.4萬億美元。

No one knows how much surplus cash banks need to feel comfortable. That depends partly on regulations, which have increased the amount of cash banks must hold as a buffer, but also on business sentiment. Banks’ near-death experience in 2008-09 has left them with a strong desire to hold plenty of extra cash. Economists have attempted to estimate the level at which banks would start to squirm, most coming up with estimates of $1.2trn-1.5trn.

沒人知道銀行需要多少盈余現(xiàn)金才能安心。這在一定程度上不僅取決于監(jiān)管力度，因為監(jiān)管會增加銀行強(qiáng)制持有現(xiàn)金作為緩沖；而且也取決于企業(yè)信心。在經(jīng)歷過2008至2009年臨近倒閉的情況后，銀行強(qiáng)烈渴望持有大量額外現(xiàn)金。經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家曾試圖評估過銀行開始不安的現(xiàn)金規(guī)模水平，多數(shù)人估算為1.2萬億至1.5萬億美元。

Usually banks have at least this much on hand. But they may not have had on September 16th, for quite benign reasons. That was the deadline for quarterly corporate-tax payments, meaning companies asked banks for more cash than usual. The Treasury had issued $77bn-worth of bills the previous week. The buyers, mostly banks, also had to pay on September 16th. The Fed expected these events, said Jerome Powell, its chairman, but not such an extreme reaction. As banks’ cash piles shrank, they grew reluctant to lend to companies and other counterparties. The repo rate spiked. Some banks stepped in, lending to companies at elevated rates. But then those banks tried to borrow from other banks in the federal funds market, pushing up the rate. This prompted the Fed to intervene.

通常銀行手頭至少要有這么多錢。但由于一些良性原因，銀行可能在9月16日時沒有那么多現(xiàn)金。（一方面，）這是繳納季度公司稅的最后期限，這意味著企業(yè)會要求銀行提供相比平常更多的現(xiàn)金。（另一方面，）美國財政部上周發(fā)行了價值770億美元的短期債券。買家主要是銀行，也必須在9月16日付款。美聯(lián)儲主席杰羅姆·鮑威爾(Jerome Powell)表示：美聯(lián)儲曾預(yù)料過這些事件，但沒想到（市場）會做出如此極端的反應(yīng)。隨著現(xiàn)金儲備的縮水，銀行越來越不樂意向企業(yè)和其他交易對手提供放貸;故而，回購利率飆升。一些銀行通過向企業(yè)不斷提高貸款利率入場，但隨后這些銀行試圖從聯(lián)邦基金市場的其他銀行借款，最終推高了利率。這促使美聯(lián)儲出手。

Cash would have become scarce sooner or later, says Bill English of Yale University. In a growing economy—especially one with a rising government deficit—the demand for bank cash increases over time.

耶魯大學(xué)的比爾·英格利希（Bill English）表示：現(xiàn)金遲早會變?yōu)橄∪辟Y源。在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的背景下——尤其是還伴隨著持續(xù)增長的政府赤字，對銀行現(xiàn)金的需求會隨著時間的推移持續(xù)增長。

The Fed now faces a choice. It could return to conducting frequent open market operations to pin down interest rates, as before the crisis. Or it could keep the current system and avert future cash shortages by expanding its balance-sheet enough to keep the banking system permanently saturated with liquidity, even as demand for cash grows. On September 18th Mr Powell suggested that the Fed would opt for the latter, saying it wanted reserves to be ample enough to avoid operations of the sort carried out in recent days. He also announced technical tweaks that will mean banks are compensated a little less handsomely for cash deposited at the Fed, which might encourage them to lend a little more in the repo market instead.

美聯(lián)儲現(xiàn)在面臨著一個選擇。要么通過頻繁的公開市場操作來固定利率，就像08年金融危機(jī)之前那樣；要么保持現(xiàn)有體系并通過擴(kuò)張資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表長久保證銀行體系的流動性，即便是在對現(xiàn)金需求增長的情況下。在9月18日，鮑威爾先生表明美聯(lián)儲將會選擇后者，并希望保持儲備金充足以避免近來情況再次發(fā)生。他還宣布美聯(lián)儲將作出的技術(shù)調(diào)整，這意味著銀行通過現(xiàn)金儲蓄所能獲得的補(bǔ)償將變少，而這或許會鼓勵他們在回購市場上多投入一些資金。

It is unclear how quickly balance-sheet expansion might be resumed. This week’s events suggest it may be soon. As Mr Powell said after the Fed’s meeting, “I think we’ll learn quite a lot in the next six weeks.”

目前尚不清楚資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表擴(kuò)張恢復(fù)的速度，但這周發(fā)生的事件表明可能會很快。正如美聯(lián)儲會議后，鮑威爾說的那樣：“我認(rèn)為我們將在接下來的六周內(nèi)學(xué)到很多。”

翻譯組：

Vivian，女，金融碩士，愛潛水愛運(yùn)動

Nana，女，南開世界經(jīng)濟(jì)碩士，努力學(xué)習(xí)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)和英語中

Gloria，女，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)在讀，愛健身愛電影愛古怪新奇的事物

May ，男， 跨界財經(jīng)、法律、政治，熱戀越野跑，迷戀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人

Ashley，女，金融碩士，愛寵物，愛英語，愛旅游，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人粉絲Summer（琚兒），女，QE在職，夢想能仗翻譯/音樂/健康走天涯

校對組：

Jessie Lulu, 金融從業(yè)者，愛陽光，愛細(xì)雨，愛經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人

Martina，女，谷歌廣告從業(yè)者，愛電影愛生活，愛金融經(jīng)濟(jì)