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“黑田時(shí)代”并未結(jié)束

本文英文部分選自經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人Finance and economics版塊

The bank of Japan

日本銀行

Japan’s central bank chooses continuity over tradition

日本央行繼續(xù)延續(xù)傳統(tǒng)

Governors of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) tend not to linger long in their post. Twenty-two people have headed the institution since 1914, compared with 16 at the Federal Reserve and 12 at the Bank of England. The last time a BoJ governor won a second term was 1961, when Japan’s economy was growing by over 11% and in?ation was over 5%. As Richard Werner, the author of “Princes of the Yen”, a history of the central bank’s failures, points out, by tradition the job alternates every ?ve years between a candidate backed by the ?nance ministry and a “true-born” BoJ insider.

日本央行（以下簡(jiǎn)稱BoJ）行長(zhǎng)往往不會(huì)長(zhǎng)久呆在他們的職位上。1914年以來(lái)，共有22人執(zhí)掌日本央行，然而美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)和英國(guó)央行分別為16人和12人。上一次日央行行長(zhǎng)獲得連任是在1961年，那時(shí)日本經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)超過(guò)11％，通貨膨脹率超過(guò)5％。正如《日元王子》這本講述“中央銀行失敗史”的書作者理查德沃納（Richard Werner）所指出的那樣，按照傳統(tǒng)，日本央行行長(zhǎng)每五年在財(cái)政部支持的候選人與“純正的”日本央行內(nèi)部人士之間進(jìn)行輪換。

第二次世界大戰(zhàn)后日本央行的歷任行長(zhǎng)

This tradition will be broken by the reappointment of Haruhiko Kuroda, who was nominated for a second term on February 16th. If he completes it, he will become the longest-serving governor in the BoJ’s history.

2月16日獲得連任提名的黑田東彥將打破這一傳統(tǒng)。如果他連任成功，他將成為日本央行歷史上任期最長(zhǎng)的行長(zhǎng)。

With luck that might be long enough for him to reach the central bank’s elusive in?ation target of 2%, a goal set ?ve years ago which he had hoped to meet by 2015. Although the BoJ has bought assets lustily with freshly created money, core in?ation, excluding fresh food and energy, was only 0.3% in the year to December. Mr Kuroda hopes that low unemployment will eventually force ?rms to raise wages and prices, which will in turn raise expectations of in?ation in the future, reinforcing its momentum. The yen should also help. Although it has strengthened by about 4% this year on a trade-weighted basis, it remains much cheaper than it was in the summer of 2016.

運(yùn)氣好的話，這個(gè)任期可能足夠使他完成央行難以達(dá)到的2％通貨膨脹率的目標(biāo)了。這是他在5年前設(shè)定的目標(biāo)，他希望在2015年之前能夠?qū)崿F(xiàn)。雖然日本央行用新創(chuàng)造的貨幣來(lái)購(gòu)買了資產(chǎn)，但剔除食品和能源價(jià)格的核心通脹率到去年12月份僅為0.3％。黑田先生希望低失業(yè)率最終會(huì)迫使企業(yè)提高工資和產(chǎn)品價(jià)格，這反過(guò)來(lái)會(huì)提高未來(lái)通脹的預(yù)期，并加強(qiáng)企業(yè)生產(chǎn)動(dòng)力。日元也許也能有所幫助。盡管今年在貿(mào)易加權(quán)基礎(chǔ)上它已經(jīng)升值了4％左右，但仍然比2016年夏天低得多。

黑田東彥（Haruhiko Kuroda）：前亞洲開(kāi)發(fā)銀行行長(zhǎng)，現(xiàn)日本央行行長(zhǎng)，支持寬松貨幣政策，提出央行將推動(dòng)“質(zhì)化和量化”貨幣寬松政策以盡快實(shí)現(xiàn)2%通脹率目標(biāo)。

The window for success may close rather earlier than 2023, however. The government plans to raise Japan’s consumption tax from 8% to 10% in October next year. Mr Kuroda supported the last such increase in April 2014, arguing that Japan’s public ?nances needed help and Japan’s recovery could withstand the blow. That proved to be a mistake. The central bank’s monetary easing failed to prevent a sharp drop in demand, partly because Japan’s private sector proved surprisingly willing to hold, rather than spend, the extra money Mr Kuroda created. But that willingness to hold safe assets (whether money or sovereign bonds) means Japan’s enormous public debt remains surprisingly easy to sustain. The government may try to o?set the next tax increase by raising social spending at the same time. But the increase still poses a threat to Japan’s economic momentum.

然而，成功的窗口恐怕會(huì)在2023年到來(lái)許久之前就會(huì)關(guān)閉。政府計(jì)劃明年10月將消費(fèi)稅從8%提高到10%。黑田東彥最后一次支持增稅的舉措是在2014年4月，他認(rèn)為日本的公共財(cái)政需要更多資金，并且其經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇是能夠承受這般波瀾的。但事實(shí)證明這是一個(gè)錯(cuò)誤。日本央行的貨幣寬松政策并沒(méi)有阻止需求的急劇下降，有一部分原因是日本的私人部門出人意料地證實(shí)，他們更愿意持有而不是用央行增發(fā)的額外貨幣來(lái)消費(fèi)。但是，人們持有無(wú)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)資產(chǎn)的偏好（不論是現(xiàn)金還是國(guó)債）意味著日本大量的公共債務(wù)是極難償還的。政府可能試圖通過(guò)同時(shí)增加社會(huì)支出來(lái)抵消增稅對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)的負(fù)面影響。但是，此次增稅政策仍對(duì)日本的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)帶來(lái)一定的威脅。

Mr Kuroda also worries that his policy of negative interest rates, announced in January 2016, may eventually turn counterproductive. The cut in rates raised the value of long-term assets held by Japan’s banks, improving their balance sheets. But this one-time bene?t must be set against an ongoing cost: negative rates hurt the margin that banks earn between the interest rates they charge their borrowers and the lower rates they pay for their funding. Since banks have not been able to pass on negative rates in full to their depositors, their funding costs have fallen less than their loan rates. This narrower margin could erode their ?nancial standing and eventually inhibit their lending.

黑田東彥還擔(dān)憂2016年1月宣布的“負(fù)利率政策”最終適得其反。利率下調(diào)提高了日本各銀行持有的長(zhǎng)期資產(chǎn)的價(jià)值，從而改善了它們的資產(chǎn)負(fù)債狀況。但是，這種一次性的收入增加必須以持續(xù)的成本為代價(jià)。銀行的收益源自于向債務(wù)人收取的利息和支付給債權(quán)人較低利息之間的差額，負(fù)利率會(huì)使得息差收窄。因?yàn)殂y行無(wú)法完全將負(fù)利率轉(zhuǎn)嫁到其存款客戶上，使得其融資成本的降幅要比貸款利率的降幅要小。愈窄的獲利區(qū)間可能侵蝕銀行主要收入來(lái)源，最終限制其借款活動(dòng)。

There is, however, “no evidence that such a thing is happening in Japan”, Masazumi Wakatabe, an economist at Waseda University in Tokyo, told Bloomberg, a news agency, in December. The improvement in the economy has increased the creditworthiness of borrowers, obliging banks to write off fewer bad loans. And bank lending grew apace after negative rates were introduced in January 2016 (see chart), even as firms have taken advantage of low borrowing costs to issue more of their own bonds and commercial paper.

然而，東京早稻田大學(xué)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家田部昌澄12月接受彭博資訊采訪時(shí)說(shuō)道:暫無(wú)證據(jù)表明日本正遭遇此事（負(fù)利率帶來(lái)的副作用）。經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)增強(qiáng)了借款人的信譽(yù)，銀行壞賬數(shù)量減少。自2016年1月日本宣布實(shí)行負(fù)利率以來(lái)，銀行貸款規(guī)模飛速上漲（如圖表所示），甚至企業(yè)也利用低借貸成本來(lái)發(fā)行自己的公司債券和商業(yè)票據(jù)。

Mr Wakatabe’s view that the BoJ should not “exit” too soon from easing seems to be shared in high places. He was also nominated on February 16th to serve alongside Mr Kuroda as one of his new deputy governors. The other deputy will be Masayoshi Amamiya, a central-bank insider known as “Mr BoJ”, who has worked to implement Mr Kuroda’s policies. Many think Mr Amamiya could eventually succeed Mr Kuroda as governor. He might even be the bank’s first boss since 1989 to inherit inflation above 2%. That would be a welcome break with recent tradition.

田部昌澄認(rèn)為日本央行不應(yīng)過(guò)快退出量化寬松政策，這一觀點(diǎn)似乎在高層中得到了認(rèn)同。2月16日，田部昌澄還被提名擔(dān)任央行副行長(zhǎng)，輔佐黑田先生。另一位副行長(zhǎng)是被稱為“日本央行先生”的央行內(nèi)部人員雨宮正佳。他一直致力于實(shí)施黑田所制定的政策。許多人認(rèn)為，雨宮正佳最終可能接替黑田東彥擔(dān)任行長(zhǎng)。他甚至可能成為央行自1989年以來(lái)能將通貨膨脹率控制在2%以上的第一位大佬。那恐怕將是一個(gè)打破傳統(tǒng)的可喜突破。

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