The new economics of oil
石油經(jīng)濟的新常態(tài)
Sheikhs v shale
中東土豪VS頁巖新貴
The economics of oil have changed. Some businesses will go bust, but the market will be healthier
石油經(jīng)濟已然改變。有些公司注定完蛋。但是，市場將變得更加健康。
Dec 6th 2014 | From the print edition of The Economist
譯者：老狒狒
THE official charter of OPEC states that the group's goal is “the stabilisation of prices in international oil markets”. It has not been doing a very good job. In June the price of a barrel of oil, then almost $115, began to slide; it now stands close to $70.
歐佩克的正式章程聲稱，該組織的目標在于“國際石油市場的價格穩(wěn)定”。它沒有很好地完成這項工作。油價從今年6月份的幾乎115美元／桶開始下跌，如今已接近70美元／桶。
This near-40% plunge is thanks partly to the sluggish world economy, which is consuming less oil than markets had anticipated, and partly to OPEC itself, which has produced more than markets expected. But the main culprits are the oilmen of North Dakota and Texas. Over the past four years, as the price hovered around $110 a barrel, they have set about extracting oil from shale formations previously considered unviable. Their manic drilling—they have completed perhaps 20,000 new wells since 2010, more than ten times Saudi Arabia's tally—has boosted America's oil production by a third, to nearly 9m barrels a day (b/d). That is just 1m b/d short of Saudi Arabia's output. The contest between the shalemen and the sheikhs has tipped the world from a shortage of oil to a surplus.
油價將近40％的暴跌，一部分原因在于疲軟的世界經(jīng)濟，這使得石油的消耗量低于市場的預期；一部分原因在于歐佩克自身，即它的產(chǎn)量高于市場預期。但是，主要的推手是北達科他州和得克薩斯州的石油人。在過去的4年中，鑒于油價始終盤旋在110美元／桶左右，他們一直在從之前被認為是沒有經(jīng)濟效益的頁巖層中提取石油。這種瘋狂的開采行為——自2010年以來，他們已經(jīng)建成了大約20000口新油井，是沙特新油井的10倍還多——讓美國的石油產(chǎn)量提高了三分之一，達到將近900萬桶／天。美國增加100萬桶／天的產(chǎn)量正是沙特所減少的。頁巖人與中東酋長之間的競爭把世界石油市場推上了風口浪尖，使得石油的供應從短缺變?yōu)檫^剩。
Fuel injection
增添動力
Cheaper oil should act like a shot of adrenalin to global growth. A $40 price cut shifts some $1.3 trillion from producers to consumers. The typical American motorist, who spent $3,000 in 2013 at the pumps, might be $800 a year better off—equivalent to a 2% pay rise. Big importing countries such as the euro area, India, Japan and Turkey are enjoying especially big windfalls. Since this money is likely to be spent rather than stashed in a sovereign-wealth fund, global GDP should rise. The falling oil price will reduce already-low inflation still further, and so may encourage central bankers towards looser monetary policy. The Federal Reserve will put off raising interest rates for longer; the European Central Bank will act more boldly to ward off deflation by buying sovereign bonds.
更加便宜的石油之于世界經(jīng)濟應如一針腎上腺素。40美元的下跌相當于將1.3萬億美元從生產(chǎn)商的手里轉移到消費者的錢包中。以美國為例，一位普通司機2013年花在加油上的錢是3000美元，今年這部分開支可能會減少800美元，等于是薪水增加2%。歐洲、印度、日本和土耳其等石油進口大國正在享受從天而降的餡兒餅。由于這部分錢很有可能被花掉而不是躺在主權財富基金中，因此全球GDP應當上升。正在下跌的油價將進一步拉低早已處在低位的通脹，因此有可能鼓勵各國央行采取更加寬松的貨幣政策。美聯(lián)儲將把加息的時間延后。歐洲央行將在采取更大膽的行動，通過購買主權債券，避免通縮。
There will, of course, be losers. Oil-producing countries whose budgets depend on high prices are in particular trouble. The rouble tumbled this week as Russia's prospects darkened further. Nigeria has been forced to raise interest rates and devalue the naira. Venezuela looks ever closer to defaulting on its debt. The spectre of defaults and the speed and scale of the price plunge have unnerved financial markets. But the overall economic effect of cheaper oil is clearly positive.
當然，油價的下跌也有一些輸家。預算取決于高油價的產(chǎn)油國尤其不好過。隨著俄羅斯的前景越發(fā)黯淡，盧布已在本周暴跌。尼日利亞已經(jīng)被迫加息并貶值了本國貨幣奈拉。委內瑞拉看上去離債務違約又近了一步。違約的幽靈和油價暴跌的速度和深度讓金融市場感到了不安。但是，有一點是很明顯的：更加便宜的石油的經(jīng)濟總體效應是正面的。
Just how positive will depend on how long the price stays low. That is the subject of a continuing tussle between OPEC and the shale-drillers. Several members of the cartel want it to cut its output, in the hope of pushing the price back up again. But Saudi Arabia, in particular, seems mindful of the experience of the 1970s, when a big leap in the price prompted huge investments in new fields, leading to a decade-long glut. Instead, the Saudis seem to be pushing a different tactic: let the price fall and put high-cost producers out of business. That should soon crimp supply, causing prices to rise.
正面效應的大小將取決與油價處于低位的時間長短。這正是歐佩克與頁巖油開采商之間纏斗不休的關鍵所在。歐佩克的數(shù)位成員國想減少產(chǎn)量，希望再次將油價推升至原來的價位。但是，沙特似乎對上世紀70年代的一幕記憶由新。當時，油價的大幅上漲層促使大量資金投入新油田的開發(fā)，從而導致了長達10年的供過于求。如今的沙特似乎正在推行另一種策略：放任油價下跌，將高成本的生產(chǎn)商逐出這一行業(yè)。這種策略應當很快抑制供給，導致油價上漲。
There are signs that such a shake-out is already under way. The share prices of firms that specialise in shale oil have been swooning. Many of them are up to their derricks in debt. Even before the oil price started falling, most were investing more in new wells than they were making from their existing ones. With their revenues now dropping fast, they will find themselves overstretched. A rash of bankruptcies is likely. That, in turn, would bespatter shale oil's reputation among investors. Even survivors may find the markets closed for some time, forcing them to rein in their expenditure to match the cash they generate from selling oil. Since shale-oil wells are short-lived (output can fall by 60-70% in the first year), any slowdown in investment will quickly translate into falling production.
種種跡象表明，此種“逐出”策略已經(jīng)付諸實施。專門生產(chǎn)頁巖油的公司的股價持續(xù)低迷。許多公司已經(jīng)債臺高筑。即便是在油價開始下跌之前，大多數(shù)頁巖油公司投入新油井的資金就已經(jīng)多于從現(xiàn)有油井中獲得的收入。鑒于收入正在快速減少，這些公司將會發(fā)現(xiàn)自己擴張過度了。一波破產(chǎn)潮很可能來臨。反過來，這又會敗壞頁巖油在投資者中的聲譽。就算有些公司能夠熬過來，它們也可能發(fā)現(xiàn)，市場將對它們關閉一段時間，迫使它們放慢冒險的步伐，盡量量入為出。由于頁巖油油井壽命不長（在第一年中，產(chǎn)量可能減少60-70%），任何的投資減速都將快速轉化為產(chǎn)量的下降。
This shake-out will be painful. But in the long run the shale industry's future seems assured. Fracking, in which a mixture of water, sand and chemicals is injected into shale formations to release oil, is a relatively young technology, and it is still making big gains in efficiency. IHS, a research firm, reckons the cost of a typical project has fallen from $70 per barrel produced to $57 in the past year, as oilmen have learned how to drill wells faster and to extract more oil from each one.
這種“逐出”策略將是痛苦的。但是，從長期來看，頁巖油行業(yè)的未來似乎是有保證的。將水、沙子和化學物品的混合物注入頁巖層以釋放石油的水力壓裂法是一項相對年輕的技術，它仍然在高效地帶來大筆財富。據(jù)環(huán)球通視預測，在過去的一年中，由于石油人掌握了更加快速的打井和從頁巖層中釋放石油的技術，一個典型項目的成本已經(jīng)從70美元／桶降至57美元／桶。
The firms that weather the current storm will have masses more shale to exploit. Drilling is just beginning (and may now be cut back) in the Niobrara formation in Colorado, for example, and the Mississippian Lime along the border between Oklahoma and Kansas. Nor need shale oil be a uniquely American phenomenon: there is similar geology all around the world, from China to the Czech Republic. Although no other country has quite the same combination of eager investors, experienced oilmen and pliable bureaucrats, the riches on offer must eventually induce shale-oil exploration elsewhere.
將會有更多的頁巖油油井等著引發(fā)當前這場風暴的公司去開發(fā)。例如，在科羅拉多州的Niobrara頁巖層，在沿著俄克拉荷馬州和堪薩斯州邊界的密西西比河石灰層，開采已經(jīng)在進行之中，而且周期有可能更短。同時，對于頁巖油的饑渴也不僅僅是美國所特有的現(xiàn)象。從中國到捷克，全世界各地有著同樣的地質結構。盡管沒有一個國家能夠想美國那樣，同時擁有饑渴的投資者，經(jīng)驗豐富的石油人和頭腦靈活的官僚，頁巖油的財富效應最終必然會引發(fā)世界各地的開采熱潮。
Most important of all, investments in shale oil come in conveniently small increments. The big conventional oilfields that have not yet been tapped tend to be in inaccessible spots, deep below the ocean, high in the Arctic, or both. America's Exxon Mobil and Russia's Rosneft recently spent two months and $700m drilling a single well in the Kara Sea, north of Siberia. Although they found oil, developing it will take years and cost billions. By contrast, a shale-oil well can be drilled in as little as a week, at a cost of $1.5m. The shale firms know where the shale deposits are and it is pretty easy to hire new rigs; the only question is how many wells to drill. The whole business becomes a bit more like manufacturing drinks: whenever the world is thirsty, you crank up the bottling plant.
最為重要的是，投資于頁巖油的資金是以便利的小額增量形式進入這一行業(yè)的。尚未被開采產(chǎn)的大型傳統(tǒng)油田往往位于難以進入的地點，要么在深海，要么在高海拔的北極，或者是兩者兼而有之。日前，美國的?？松梨谑凸竞投砹_斯的俄羅斯石油公司在北西伯利亞的喀拉海中，花了兩個月的時間，耗資70億美元，僅僅打了一口油井。盡管發(fā)現(xiàn)了石油，但是開發(fā)時間將長達數(shù)年，成本將達到上百億美元。相比之下，頁巖油油井的開采最短一周就能完成，而成本僅為150萬美元。頁巖油公司知道頁巖層的分布地點，而且很容易租到新設備。唯一的問題是：到底有多少頁巖油油井可供開采？整個行業(yè)越來越像飲料制造業(yè)：只要世界渴了，把灌裝廠的馬力開足就行。
Sheikh out
讓酋長出局
So the economics of oil have changed. The market will still be subject to political shocks: war in the Middle East or the overdue implosion of Vladimir Putin's kleptocracy would send the price soaring. But, absent such an event, the oil price should be less vulnerable to shocks or manipulation. Even if the 3m extra b/d that the United States now pumps out is a tiny fraction of the 90m the world consumes, America's shale is a genuine rival to Saudi Arabia as the world's marginal producer. That should reduce the volatility not just of the oil price but also of the world economy. Oil and finance have proved themselves the only two industries able to tip the world into recession. At least one of them should in future be a bit more stable.
因此，石油經(jīng)濟已經(jīng)變了。市場仍將受制于各種政治地震，如中東的戰(zhàn)爭，或者是遲到的普京盜賊統(tǒng)治的內爆，這些事件都會令油價飆升。但是，即便是在不出現(xiàn)此類事件的情況下，油價之于政治地震或者操控事件也不應當像以前那樣脆弱不堪?？v然美國如今增產(chǎn)的300萬桶／天的額外產(chǎn)量只占全世界每天所消耗的9000萬桶的很小一部分。但是，做為一個邊際生產(chǎn)者，美國的頁巖油卻是沙特的真正對手。這種情況應當在降低油價的脆弱型的同時亦降低世界經(jīng)濟的脆弱性。石油和金融業(yè)已證明，它們是唯一能讓世界陷入衰退的兩個行業(yè)。如今，兩者之中至少有一個應該在今后變得穩(wěn)定起來。
From the print edition: Leaders
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