1980年,中國牛肉消費(fèi)量為10萬余噸,這僅占據(jù)了中國肉類總消費(fèi)量的4%。到2015年,中國牛肉消費(fèi)量增長(zhǎng)了60倍(已達(dá)7百萬余噸),占肉類總消費(fèi)量8.6%。 牛肉在中國越來越受歡迎,牛肉消費(fèi)量以每年約5%的速度增長(zhǎng)。然而與西方牛肉消費(fèi)水平相比,中國仍處于一個(gè)很低的消費(fèi)水平。 夯實(shí)的牛肉消費(fèi)基礎(chǔ)中國消費(fèi)者將會(huì)繼續(xù)增加他們的牛肉消費(fèi)能力,這是勢(shì)不可擋的趨勢(shì)。首先,都市化和更多中產(chǎn)階級(jí)的出現(xiàn)都是驅(qū)使更多人愿意消費(fèi)牛肉的關(guān)鍵因素。其次,中國人民的消費(fèi)飲食正在發(fā)生變化,隨著中國零售餐飲服務(wù)行業(yè)不斷改善,越來越多的消費(fèi)者愿意為中餐、日餐、韓餐及西餐中的優(yōu)質(zhì)牛肉買單。中國擁有14億的龐大人口,這將是一個(gè)非??捎^的肉牛消費(fèi)潛力。此刻不發(fā)展中國肉牛業(yè),更待何時(shí)! 中國牛肉來自何方?目前,中國的牛肉主要有三個(gè)來源。第一個(gè)來源是認(rèn)證進(jìn)口,主要是從南美洲(巴西、烏拉圭、智利、阿根廷等國具有低價(jià)優(yōu)勢(shì))及澳洲(澳大利亞和新西蘭具有品牌和自貿(mào)優(yōu)勢(shì))。 第二個(gè)來源是一些灰色渠道,說直白些,是走私牛肉。其中一部分走私牛肉來自香港,盡管這種非法行為已經(jīng)被要求停止,但是仍時(shí)有發(fā)生。最主要的牛肉走私發(fā)生在越南邊境。由于印度還是以奶牛養(yǎng)殖為主,國內(nèi)牛肉需求低,印度成為了全球最主要的牛肉貿(mào)易國。當(dāng)然,中國不允許印度直接出口牛肉到中國,因此,被淘汰的印度奶牛肉最后進(jìn)入了越南,進(jìn)而在越南邊境開始走私。據(jù)行業(yè)專家表示,去年有近三百萬噸的牛肉通過邊境走私進(jìn)入了中國,這標(biāo)志著目前中國巨大的牛肉需求量。然而,牛肉走私對(duì)于中國肉牛業(yè)而言是巨大的威脅。中國消費(fèi)者希望安全、可追溯有保障的食物,一旦這些走私牛肉爆出什么丑聞,消費(fèi)者們將會(huì)不再相信牛肉產(chǎn)品。這種短期的商業(yè)利益是需要被管制的,中國和越南政府也很有必要協(xié)作來處理這個(gè)嚴(yán)峻的問題。 中國肉牛業(yè)被認(rèn)為是全球第三大,然而與美國相比,中國肉牛業(yè)是高度零散化的。美國前四的肉牛企業(yè)屠宰了75%的肉牛,而在中國,排名前四的肉牛企業(yè)僅屠宰了1%的肉牛。絕大多數(shù)的中國牛肉都是來自那些小型的、低效率飼養(yǎng)模式的家庭牛場(chǎng)。 中國正在發(fā)生變化,在過去的數(shù)年里,中國肉牛業(yè)開始向規(guī)模化養(yǎng)殖轉(zhuǎn)型,同時(shí)兼?zhèn)洮F(xiàn)代化供應(yīng)鏈。但在這過程中,中國肉牛業(yè)也面臨著轉(zhuǎn)型帶來的挑戰(zhàn),肉牛企業(yè)一直在努力適應(yīng)這樣的商業(yè)模式,解決遇到的財(cái)務(wù)狀況,考慮如何在畜牧行業(yè)站穩(wěn)腳跟。在看到如此巨大的牛肉消費(fèi)潛力,政府也給出很多支持來幫助中國肉牛業(yè)實(shí)現(xiàn)規(guī)?;F(xiàn)代化。這將有助于改革。 中國肉牛業(yè)缺少優(yōu)勢(shì)、交流和正確的發(fā)展模式。對(duì)我而言,轉(zhuǎn)型期對(duì)于一個(gè)行業(yè)來說其實(shí)是一個(gè)絕佳機(jī)會(huì),來進(jìn)行創(chuàng)新、探尋新的合作伙伴和財(cái)務(wù)模式;而對(duì)于中國肉牛企業(yè),當(dāng)下也是一個(gè)完美時(shí)機(jī)為未來的發(fā)展技術(shù)創(chuàng)新。奧特奇已經(jīng)準(zhǔn)備就緒,期待與您一同改變這個(gè)行業(yè)。 未來壹愿景到2025年,等到牛肉成為中國飲食中不可或缺的一部分時(shí),中國消費(fèi)者將可以品嘗到全世界牛肉,體驗(yàn)到牛肉不同的切割、口感、品牌。中國將會(huì)成為肉牛養(yǎng)殖最發(fā)達(dá)的國家之一,充分利用副產(chǎn)品和最新的飼養(yǎng)技術(shù)。市場(chǎng)將會(huì)進(jìn)行整合,中國前四大肉牛企業(yè)將會(huì)占領(lǐng)50%的市場(chǎng)份額。中國牛肉是全球知名的、安全可追溯的!這就是我對(duì)于中國肉牛業(yè)的壹愿景! Beef in China: An Incredible Opportunity In 1980, only 100,000 tonnes of beef was consumed in China and this made up 4% of total meat consumption. By 2015, total beef meat consumption had grown 60-fold (over 7 million tonnes) and beef made up 8.6% of total consumption . Beef is becoming increasingly popular in China, and beef consumption is growing by about 5% per annum. In comparison to Western beef consumption levels, Chinese beef consumption is still at a much lower level.Strong fundamentalsThere are strong underlying factors to suggest that Chinese consumers will continue to consume more beef. Firstly, urbanization and a growing middle class are key drivers of increased beef consumption. Secondly, Chinese diets are changing and as the Chinese retail restaurant service sector continues to improve, more consumers are willing to pay a premium for high quality beef either in Chinese, Japanese, Korean or Western cuisines. With a population of 1.4 billion, this is a perfect storm for beef consumption. What a time to be in the beef industry in China!Where is China’s beef coming from?Currently, China’s beef comes from three sources. The first source imports from certified sources, mainly South America (Brazil, Uruguay, Chile, Argentina-lower price point) and Australasia (Australia and New Zealand-good brands and free trade advantage). The second source of beef in China is through gray channels, or more bluntly, smuggled beef. A portion comes through Hong Kong, and although these illegal activities have been curbed, they still occur. The majority of beef smuggling goes through the Vietnamese border. Because of India’s major dairy herd, and a lack of domestic beef demand, India has become a major trader of beef globally. Of course, China does not allow India to export beef directly, therefore, culled Indian cows’ meat ends up in Vietnam and is smuggled over the border. Industry experts said that almost 3 million tonnes of beef was smuggled over the border into China last year, which signals the massive domestic demand. This smuggling racket is a huge threat to the Chinese beef industry. Chinese consumers demand food safety, traceability and security and if there were some public scandals about this rampant beef smuggling, it could turn consumers away from beef. Short-term business gains should be fought and it is imperative that the Chinese and Vietnamese governments work together to deal with this significant problem. China’s domestic beef sector is regarded as the third largest in the world, but compared to the US, China’s beef sector is highly fragmented. To put this in context, the top four beef processors in the US slaughter 75% of the cattle. In China, the top 4 slaughter approximately 1% of the cattle. Most of China’s beef is coming from small, inefficient back-yard operations. There is change under-way in China and in the past number of years, the beef sector in China has begun its transformation to scaled farming and a modern supply chain. There have been growing pains and Chinese beef companies have struggled with business models, with animal husbandry and with financing. With such potential for beef consumption, the government has also begun to give more support to the Chinese beef sector, in order to scale up and modernize. This should help in the reform. China’s beef sector lacks talent, lacks dialogue and the correct models for growth. To me, an industry in transition is a fantastic opportunity for innovation, for new partnerships and for new financing models, and this is the perfect time for Chinese beef farming groups to embrace and innovate around new technologies for future growth. Alltech is ready and wants to work with you in changing the industry. One vision for the future:In 2025, as beef becomes an ever more important staple of the Chinese diet, Chinese consumers have access to beef from around the world, with different cuts, tastes and brands to cater to the different markets. China will boast one of the most efficient beef sectors in the world, utilizing co-products and the latest in feeding technology. The market has consolidated and the top 4 Chinese beef companies account for almost 50% market share. Chinese beef is globally renowned, with safe and traceable products from farm to chopstick! That is my One Vision for the Chinese beef sector!