WHEN Snapchat first became popular in 2013, many thought the messaging app would disappear almost as quickly as its vanishing messages. Instead, it has become one of the most intriguing internet firms to emerge in years. When Snap, Snapchat’s parent company, goes public at an expected valuation of $20bn-25bn—the IPO is expected in March—its market debut will be the most closely watched since Alibaba, a Chinese e-commerce giant, floated in 2014. Snap’s offering documents may be filed publicly as soon as this week.
當(dāng)Snapchat在2013年首次爆紅時(shí)，很多人認(rèn)為這一款即時(shí)通訊應(yīng)用的消失的速度與它的信息消失的速度一樣快?？墒牵鼌s成為了近年來(lái)最讓人好奇的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)。當(dāng)Snapchat的母公司Snap預(yù)計(jì)以200億美元至250億美元的區(qū)間市值上市時(shí)，這一次在三月啟動(dòng)的IPO將繼2014年中國(guó)電商巨頭阿里巴巴之后的最受人關(guān)注的上市活動(dòng)。Snap的上市的文件將會(huì)在本周向公眾提交。
Snapchat has captivated youngsters in the West with its quickly disappearing content and playful features. It appears to have connected with youth more successfully than older rivals such as Facebook (or its messaging service, WhatsApp). Users share digitally enhanced photos and videos of themselves vomiting rainbows and morphing their faces into animal masks. Around 41% of Americans aged 18 to 34 use the ephemeral messaging service every day, and 150m people globally spend time on it every day.
Snapchat成為西方年輕人的鐘愛的應(yīng)用，發(fā)出的信息會(huì)快速消失，同時(shí)還擁有一些好玩的功能。相比成立時(shí)間更長(zhǎng)的Facebook(及其旗下的短信應(yīng)用WhatsApp)，Snapchat更為成功地吸引住了年輕人。這款應(yīng)用的用戶分享美化過的數(shù)字圖片以及視頻，如吞食彩虹或在臉上戴上動(dòng)物面具。
在美國(guó)，有41%的18-34歲的人每天都會(huì)使用這一款信息有效期很短的應(yīng)用，而全球每天有1500萬(wàn)人使用。
Older grown-ups should pay attention too. Snapchat is experimenting with new technologies, such as augmented reality (AR) and wearable devices. A large share of people who have used AR will have experienced it on Snapchat, where users can overlay computer-generated images on photos and videos (see article).
一些年齡更長(zhǎng)都也在關(guān)注它。Snapchat也在實(shí)驗(yàn)新的技術(shù)，如現(xiàn)實(shí)增強(qiáng)技術(shù)和穿戴設(shè)備。很多使用現(xiàn)實(shí)增強(qiáng)設(shè)備的人也會(huì)在Snapchat做體驗(yàn)，而在其中，用戶可以將電腦生成的形象放在圖片或視頻里。
The firm’s IPO prospectus is expected to describe not an internet or communications company but a “camera company”. Snapchat has prospered from access to the camera on every smartphone, and now it wants to sell hardware as well. Its new sunglasses, called Spectacles, sell for $130 and enable users to record video from their exact line of sight. They have caught the attention of analysts, who are impressed by the glasses’ ambition, functionality and clean design.
對(duì)于Snap的IPO預(yù)期，預(yù)計(jì)會(huì)是定位為一家照像企業(yè)而不是互聯(lián)網(wǎng)通訊企業(yè)。它此前因出現(xiàn)在每一部智能手機(jī)里而名聲大噪，而現(xiàn)在卻想銷售硬件了。它最新推出一款名為”Spectacles“的太陽(yáng)鏡，銷價(jià)130美元，能讓用戶拍攝實(shí)際光線中的景色。由于這款眼鏡展現(xiàn)的野心、功能以及簡(jiǎn)潔的設(shè)計(jì)等，這款設(shè)備引起了市場(chǎng)分析師的關(guān)注。
How well it fares as a public company will also serve as a litmus test of whether it is possible to prosper in the shadow of digital behemoths like Facebook and Google. Snapchat has a different outlook. Facebook creates permanent records of users’ lives; Snapchat offers liberating impermanence. On most social-media sites, people post about their achievements to a huge circle of acquaintances; Snapchat’s users share images of themselves looking silly with smaller groups of friends.
Snap作為一家上市公司能走多遠(yuǎn)，這將成為他在Facebook和Google等數(shù)字巨頭的陰影下能否成功的試金石。Snapchat的前景則有所不同。Facebook永久性地?fù)碛杏脩魻顟B(tài)記錄；Snapchat的服務(wù)則是過用即焚。在大多數(shù)的社交網(wǎng)站上，用戶向人數(shù)眾多的朋友圈里上傳他們的成就；Snapchat的用戶則是與數(shù)量更少的朋友圈分享看上去傻乎乎的照片。
Rainbows, streaks, and unicorn faces
彩虹、條紋和裝飾著犄角的臉
Snapchat started in 2011 as Picaboo. It was created by three members of a fraternity at Stanford University: Reggie Brown, Bobby Murphy and Evan Spiegel (now Snap’s chief executive). The app, which they later renamed, was not an overnight sensation that crashed the internet, as Thefacebook did at Harvard. It lay virtually undiscovered for some time, until high-school girls discovered it and started using the app to send (sometimes risqué) messages.
2011年，Snapchat以Picaboo身份面市。是由三位斯坦佛大學(xué)兄弟會(huì)成員創(chuàng)立的，他們分別是雷吉·布朗(Reggie Brown)、博比·墨菲(Bobby Murphy)和伊萬(wàn)·斯皮格（Evan Spiegel）（現(xiàn)任Snap首席執(zhí)行官）。應(yīng)用后來(lái)改名Snapchat，但卻并非如Facebook在哈佛大學(xué)里那樣一夜爆紅于互聯(lián)網(wǎng)。它一度無(wú)人知曉，直到高中女生們發(fā)現(xiàn)了它，開始用來(lái)發(fā)信息（有時(shí)是不雅信息）。
Mr Spiegel has proven himself to be creative in devising new features for Snapchat’s app and in imagining how it might evolve. At first it was a one-to-one messaging function for people to send disappearing “snaps” to one another. Three years ago Mr Spiegel launched a one-to-many broadcast function, called “stories”, where people can string together images and videos and share them with all their friends at once. In 2015 it launched “Discover”, where professional publishers offer a selection of disappearing articles and videos tailored to millennials (The Economist publishes on Discover). These features offer elements of scarcity and urgency that bring people back repeatedly.
斯皮格證明了自己富有創(chuàng)造力，給Snapchat新增了很多新功能，并設(shè)想出了它的升級(jí)路徑。最初，Snapchat擁有一對(duì)一的信息發(fā)送功能，而信息在發(fā)送給對(duì)方之后就會(huì)消失。三年前，斯皮格上線了一個(gè)一對(duì)多的廣播功能，并稱之為”故事“。用戶將圖片和視頻串在一起，一次性地與朋友分享。在2015年，Snapchat上線了”發(fā)現(xiàn)“功能，專業(yè)的內(nèi)容發(fā)布者能發(fā)布專門為”千禧一代“制作的閱后即焚的文章和視頻。這些上線的功能具有稀缺性和緊迫感，迫使用戶不斷地訪問應(yīng)用。
Snapchat has innovated in other ways, too. It shows users how many snaps they have sent and received since joining, and they try to keep this score high. It invented “streaks” that keep track of how many consecutive days friends have sent messages back and forth. When Braden Allen, a 16-year-old in Dallas whose tally of sent and received snaps stands at around 170,000, needed a break from Snapchat to study, he gave his login information to a friend to keep sending on his behalf.
Snapchat在其它方面也有創(chuàng)新。它會(huì)顯示用戶加入后上傳和接收帖子的數(shù)量，而用戶還要讓這個(gè)數(shù)字盡可能地高。
它還發(fā)明了時(shí)間段，記錄好友連續(xù)發(fā)送和接受信息的天數(shù)。17歲的達(dá)拉斯少年布萊登·艾倫（Braden Allen）在Snapchat上收發(fā)的信息高達(dá)17萬(wàn)條，多得需要Snapchat花不少時(shí)間才能研究透。然而，這位少年卻將賬戶給了自己的一位朋友，讓他代自己發(fā)信息。
Lenses are another distinctive feature. When people take selfies, they can choose to alter their appearance, becoming an animal, switching faces with a friend or doing other fantastical things with the app’s facial-recognition technology. Snapchat has quietly become the most-used augmented reality product in the world, says Ben Thompson of Stratechery, a research firm.
濾鏡是Snapchat的另一個(gè)與眾不同的功能。人們自拍的時(shí)候，會(huì)選擇不同的面目，選擇一個(gè)動(dòng)物頭像，與朋友換臉，或是用Snapchat的一些面部識(shí)別技術(shù)用一些別的有意思的事。市場(chǎng)研究機(jī)構(gòu)Stratechery的本·湯普森（Ben Thompson）表示，Snapchat在不知不覺之中成為了全球使用率最高的現(xiàn)實(shí)增強(qiáng)應(yīng)用。
Although Snap encourages users to be silly on its app, it hopes to be taken seriously as a business. It will need to decide what approach it should take when using information about users to target ads. Mr Spiegel has called the practice “creepy” in the past. Yet Snap may need to share more data about its users; Mr Spiegel has indicated that he may be willing to do this.
盡管Snapchat鼓勵(lì)用戶以傻瓜式的方式使用應(yīng)用，卻也希望外界將之視為一家企業(yè)。它需要決定以采取何種方式使用用戶的信息，用于廣告。斯皮格曾稱這種方式?jīng)]有節(jié)操。然而，Snap可能得交出用戶更多的數(shù)據(jù)；斯皮格之前曾表示愿意這么做。
The company has started to allow advertising in between users’ stories and in the midst of publishers’ articles on Discover. Brands can also buy sponsored lenses. For example, Taco Bell, a fast-food chain, paid for a lens that allowed users to change their faces into tacos. These promotions can be expensive, at around $550,000-800,000 for a lens that is available across America for a day, and can take some months to prepare. Snap insists on keeping some creative control, and can veto projects it thinks look too much like basic advertising. That has irked some brands in the past.
Snap開始允許在用戶的“故事”中間插入廣告，也允許在'發(fā)現(xiàn)'頻道里的發(fā)布商文章里插廣告。各個(gè)品牌也能購(gòu)買一些付費(fèi)濾鏡。例如，快餐連鎖品牌Taco Bell贊助了一款濾鏡，能讓用戶將臉變成一張玉米薄餅卷。這一些推廣方式費(fèi)用高昂，在美國(guó)，一款濾鏡一天的費(fèi)用在55萬(wàn)至80萬(wàn)美元之間，并需要等待好幾個(gè)月的時(shí)間。Snap堅(jiān)持廣告要有創(chuàng)意，并會(huì)否絕掉一些認(rèn)為是過于普通的廣告。這種作法之前惹惱過一些品牌商。
Snapchat is nowhere near earning the sort of ad revenues that Google and Facebook bring in. Those two scoop 58% of digital advertising in America and last year claimed nearly all of the market’s growth. One of the world’s largest advertising agencies spent $60m on Snapchat in 2016, compared with $1bn on Facebook. The same agency expects to spend $170m on Snapchat this year. Snap could have around $1bn of revenue in 2017, three times its total sales in 2016. Advertisers certainly welcome the prospect of having an alternative to the Facebook-Google duopoly, says Chris Vollmer of PwC, a consultancy.
Snapchat在廣告收入方面根本無(wú)法與Google和Facebook相提并論。這兩家巨頭占據(jù)了美國(guó)數(shù)字廣告58%的份額，并在2016聲稱將整個(gè)市場(chǎng)的增長(zhǎng)納入囊中。2016年，全球一家最大的廣告代理商在Snapchat上的支出為600萬(wàn)美元，而在Facebook上則為10億美元。這家廣告代理商預(yù)計(jì)2017年在Snapchat上的廣告投放為1.7億美元。Snap2017年的收入預(yù)計(jì)約有10億美元，為2016年的三倍。普華永道的克里斯·沃爾墨爾（Chris Vollmer）表示，廣告主當(dāng)然喜歡出現(xiàn)一個(gè)能替代Facebook-Google雙雄的廣告平臺(tái)。
Yet there are questions over how large Snapchat’s user base can become, and whether it can support the high stockmarket valuation that is talked of. The app has yet to establish that it has strong appeal for older users, for example. In emerging markets it costs more to use lots of data on smartphones, and Snapchat’s data-intensive app is less widely used. Brian Wieser, an internet analyst, reckons that Snapchat is an “important niche player” but that it will never achieve the scale of Facebook. It doesn’t have to target more than a billion daily users to be a valuable company, but Mr Spiegel will need to be careful not oversell the app’s potential reach, as Twitter did when it went public in 2013 promising to attract “the largest audience in the world”.
然而，外界質(zhì)疑Snapchat用戶數(shù)量規(guī)模會(huì)有多大，以及它能否支撐住一個(gè)津津樂道的市值。還有就是，這款閱后即焚的應(yīng)用還沒有形成對(duì)年長(zhǎng)用戶的吸引力。在新興的市場(chǎng)，要在智能手機(jī)上使用大量數(shù)據(jù)的成本要更高一些，而Snapchat這一類數(shù)據(jù)量大型應(yīng)用的使用廣度還不多?；ヂ?lián)網(wǎng)分析析布萊恩·威瑟（Brian Wieser）認(rèn)為，Snapchat是一個(gè)重要的細(xì)分市場(chǎng)的角色，但永遠(yuǎn)無(wú)法實(shí)現(xiàn)Facebook的規(guī)模。要成為一個(gè)價(jià)值連城的企業(yè)，它不必瞄準(zhǔn)日活用戶達(dá)到10億的目標(biāo)，不過，斯皮格得小心謹(jǐn)慎，不要浪費(fèi)了這款應(yīng)用的用戶數(shù)量潛力——Twitter在2013年上市時(shí)就是這么做的，當(dāng)時(shí)它承諾要實(shí)現(xiàn)全球用戶最多的目標(biāo)。
He has so far focused on Western markets, whose users are most valuable to advertisers, in contrast to Facebook and Twitter, which emphasise their global reach. He is expected to point to high user engagement with Snapchat, rather than relentless user growth, as the gauge investors should watch. This will require a shift in thinking for stockmarket investors, who have been trained by Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn and several other internet firms to demand fast-growing audiences.
目前為止，斯皮格關(guān)注的重點(diǎn)還是放在西方市場(chǎng)，其中的用戶對(duì)廣告主來(lái)說(shuō)是最有價(jià)值的，而Facebook和Twitter則是放眼全球用戶。預(yù)計(jì)斯皮格會(huì)以用戶與Snapchat的重度粘度為目標(biāo)，而不是用戶數(shù)量增長(zhǎng)，這是大量的投資者要密切關(guān)注的地方。對(duì)于股市投資者來(lái)說(shuō)，這需要在思想上做出轉(zhuǎn)變，因?yàn)樗麄兪苁蹻acebook、Twitter、領(lǐng)英等互聯(lián)網(wǎng)企業(yè)的洗腦，要求的是快速的用戶增長(zhǎng)。
Snap’s profit margins in its various business lines may also disappoint: they are unlikely to be as generous as those of Google and Facebook, which both fulfil a lot of their ad orders using automated programmes. Because its ads tend more often to be individually designed, it relies on a large, human salesforce. Selling also takes more time, as it does in television.
在各個(gè)業(yè)務(wù)線，Snap的純利潤(rùn)可能會(huì)令人失望：這些業(yè)務(wù)不可能如Google和Facebook那樣賺錢，而后者通過學(xué)習(xí)自動(dòng)化程序來(lái)完成廣告下單業(yè)務(wù)。Snapchat的廣告通常更多的是個(gè)性化定制的，因此更多地依賴于大量的地面銷售團(tuán)隊(duì)。與電視廣告一樣，銷售需要更多的時(shí)間。
Mr Spiegel will also need to prove his ability to lead. Many of his boosters compare him to the late Steve Jobs for his creative, perfectionist vision of products. He may resemble Mr Jobs in more negative ways, too. He is secretive and controls information tightly. No one but Mr Spiegel—not even the board and other top executives—knows all the important details of the firm’s strategy and future plans. He is off-limits to most employees and travels between Snap’s buildings in a black Range Rover with a security detail.
斯皮格還需要證明他的領(lǐng)導(dǎo)能力。許多鼓吹他的人將他比作過世的喬布斯：富有創(chuàng)造力、所示盡善盡美的產(chǎn)品。他也可能更多地?fù)碛辛藛滩妓沟娜秉c(diǎn)。他口風(fēng)緊，嚴(yán)格地掌握信息。只有斯皮格，甚至只有董事會(huì)和另外幾個(gè)高管，才了解Snap的戰(zhàn)略和未來(lái)的規(guī)劃。他不與員工接觸，只是開著黑色的路虎，還著保密信息在Snap的各個(gè)大樓間穿梭。
Some early backers also privately express concern that the talent pool behind him is not as experienced as they would like. Adult supervision will come from Michael Lynton, a seasoned entertainment executive, who is resigning from running the film studio of Japan’s Sony to serve as Snap’s chairman. But there are few like him at the company.
一些早期的支持者曾私下里擔(dān)心，除了他之外，決策團(tuán)隊(duì)的經(jīng)驗(yàn)并一定豐富。經(jīng)驗(yàn)豐富的管理來(lái)自有娛樂行業(yè)管理背景的邁克爾·林登（Michael Lynton）。他從日本電影公司索尼離職，加盟Snap，作董事會(huì)主席。不過，在Snap，像林登這樣的人鳳毛麟角。
The competition against Facebook and Google (which owns YouTube, an online-video site, against which Snapchat will directly compete for ad dollars) is unlikely to let up. Facebook tried to buy Snapchat for $3bn in 2013, and has since then copied many of its popular features. Last summer Instagram, which is owned by Facebook, launched its own “stories” feature; its parent company is now testing the idea of rolling out this feature on its own social network. Usage of Snapchat stories has declined significantly since Instagram stories began. That could shake the faith of some Snapolytes, who believed that Snapchat had sufficient allure to keep its young users away from Facebook’s properties and those of other internet firms.
與Facebook和Google的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)不會(huì)停止，而Snapchat與Google旗下的視頻網(wǎng)站YouTube在廣告業(yè)務(wù)方面有著直接的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)。2013年，F(xiàn)acebook意欲以30億美元的價(jià)格收購(gòu)Snapchat，并且之后還多次抄襲過Snapchat的多個(gè)受歡迎功能。在2016年夏，F(xiàn)acebook旗下的Instagram上線了自己的“故事”功能，而Facebook正在自己的網(wǎng)站上測(cè)試推出同樣的功能。在Instagramg的“故事”功能推出之后，Snapchat的使用度極劇下滑。這種情況讓Snap忠粉們的信念產(chǎn)生動(dòng)搖，因?yàn)檫@些人相信Snapchat對(duì)年輕人有充分的吸引力，不會(huì)使用Facebook以及其他互聯(lián)網(wǎng)功能的應(yīng)用。
The public offering stands as evidence that Snap wants to stay independent. But Facebook or Google could still buy it. “That is why I would not short the stock,” says one hedge-funder, who is sceptical about the high valuation it is likely to receive. Mr Spiegel must know that his firm, as one of the only real threats to the two giants, would be a prize for either of them.
Snap上市表明它想保持獨(dú)立性?？墒牵現(xiàn)acebook或Google仍有可能會(huì)收購(gòu)它。“這是我為什么不看空它的原因，”一位對(duì)沖基金經(jīng)理說(shuō)道。他對(duì)于Snapchat可能的高估值觀點(diǎn)表示懷疑。斯皮格必須了解到，作為一家能對(duì)Facebook和Google產(chǎn)生威脅的企業(yè)，他的企業(yè)對(duì)這兩家企業(yè)而言是一個(gè)獎(jiǎng)勵(lì)。
If Snap wants to survive as an independent firm, he may need to make some smart acquisitions of his own, as Facebook did by buying Instagram and WhatsApp. One opportunity may be visual search. Snapchat’s users are using their cameras to capture the world around them. When they point their smartphones at objects, they could be served with advertising. Only Mr Spiegel knows the plan. But in the highly concentrated internet ecosystem, companies increasingly must eat or risk being eaten. The coming years will show whether Snap is predator or prey.
如果Snap希望能以獨(dú)立企業(yè)的形式生存下來(lái)，斯皮格可能需要自己作出一些收購(gòu)行為，一如Facebook就收購(gòu)了Instagram和WhatsApp。一個(gè)潛在的收購(gòu)機(jī)會(huì)可能是視覺搜索。Snapchat的用戶使用手機(jī)的攝像機(jī)拍攝自己身邊的景色。在他們將自己的手機(jī)對(duì)著東西拍的時(shí)候，就可以有廣告的服務(wù)出現(xiàn)。只有斯皮格知道這個(gè)計(jì)劃。不過，在這個(gè)高度集中的互聯(lián)網(wǎng)生態(tài)體系之中，企業(yè)越來(lái)越多地面臨要不收購(gòu)，要不被收購(gòu)的局面。在接下來(lái)的幾年里，會(huì)知道Snap是收購(gòu)者還是被收購(gòu)者。
編輯：翻吧君
來(lái)源：經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)人
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